Gold and silver seven-year itch: short gold or more silver

Compared to the price of gold, silver was as cheap as it was now, or more than seven years ago. At that time, Barack Obama was the rookie president who just entered the White House, and the iPhone 3 mobile phone that brought most of the profits to Apple was just allowed to enter the Chinese market.

In the first three months of this year, the price of silver has risen by 12%, which is the best performance in recent years, but it is inferior to the increase of about 20% in the same period of gold. This also leads to the ratio of gold and silver prices being further Pulling up, once reached a record high of 83 - which means that the price of one ounce of gold is enough to buy 83 ounces of silver.

From a longer period of time, the price of gold and silver is longer than that of 65, which is considered by most investors as a “reasonable interval”. If historical statistics do make sense, a high gold-to-silver ratio means that silver has a stronger upside potential. So keen institutional investors caught this trend. In mid-April, the silver ETF hit a record of the highest three-day capital inflows since 2013, and its positions soared 500 tons, the highest level since September last year.

Of course, another possibility for the price of gold and silver to rise to a high level is that the price of gold has risen again after a round of violent rebound. In this case, holding silver is nicknamed “the gold of the poor”. Metal is a safer choice.

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Regardless of the standard, it is an indisputable fact that the current silver price is not high. From a fundamental point of view, oversupply is the cause of the sluggish silver price, and market consumption has not kept pace with the supply of silver for four consecutive years. However, this situation may be reversed. With the pace of opening up storage capacity, such as Fres Nilo, the world's largest silver producer, the momentum of global silver output growth for ten consecutive years may be reversed this year.

Of course, the production capacity of silver mines is also affected to some extent by the sluggish base metals market. Because silver is usually associated with minerals such as copper, lead, and zinc, the price of copper and zinc has fallen to the low point since the financial crisis in the previous period, causing miners to choose the means of limiting production and insuring prices. Will affect the production of silver.

It is worth noting that although there may be a turning point in silver production this year, this does not mean that the overall supply of silver will change as a whole, because the amount of capacity reduction is not enough to make up for the supply gap. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the momentum of rising silver prices is not clear.

This is similar to the outlook for most base metals. Compared with gold, the price curve of silver is closer to the base metal represented by copper. Because the demand for industrial demand such as electronics and dentistry has fallen below 10% of total gold demand, and half of the world's silver is widely used in electronics and photovoltaic industries. This makes the demand for silver more rigid, but at the same time it does not give a significant boost to the need for safe haven as gold.

Seven years ago, silver was still in a relatively balanced state of supply and demand. The Wall Street financial turmoil also began to affect the silver price, so the ratio of gold and silver prices was pushed to a smaller range. More than seven years have changed a lot of things, such as Obama is about to retire, Apple's mobile phone sales have begun to decline after generations of fire. However, for the choice of gold and silver investment, this seven-year itch is only the beginning. In the last two weeks of April, the price of silver rose more than the price of gold, and the price ratio of gold and silver narrowed again. In this case, investors will face a Hamlet-style dilemma: short gold or long Silver, this is a problem.

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