Source: Qiu Shui Pen Talk
"A good room has to be robbed in seconds."
Nowadays, the sales department in Hainan Province is full of people every day.
When the good listing is out, it will be robbed. After the price is calculated, the one has already paid the money.
Moreover, most of the market has only the tail room for sale, and most of them have only 80m2 or more large-sized units, and there are few small-sized units.
Many of them have only the first floor or the top floor, and some of the buildings are sold out at the top floor. Each sales department is staged a historic rush to fight.
On April 13th, the news of the construction of the free trade pilot zone in Hainan Island was all over, and all the sales offices in Hainan Province were crowded with people who came to buy property.
A salesperson receives more than a dozen customers at the same time. It is very common. At night, I still need to take a flashlight and continue to fight with a group of people watching the crowd.
These days, Haikou is basically about 500 to 1,000 yuan per square meter per day. On the other side of Sanya, about 3,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan per square meter.
Some mediators also said that after the announcement of the free trade port news, the price of real estate in Sanya is generally rising from 4,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan per square meter.
At present, the average price of housing in Sanya has gone to 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per square meter, and less than 30,000.
(A screenshot of an intermediary company marketing group)
House prices are rising every night.
In the evening, the real estate that has not been closed will be adjusted and will rise.
Sometimes, I am still selling in the morning, and I will close it in the afternoon. I will not sell it and continue to adjust the price at night.
Regardless of the ups and downs, they are all rising, the discounts are raised without discounts, or the price is raised, and the transaction prices are rising.
Many buildings are already crazy, suspending sales, and crazy price adjustments.
The government has already talked about developers and intermediaries, and does not allow prices to rise. The developers will not sell them and apply for price adjustments.
Now, there must be a record permit for the sale of the house. The sales price must be based on the record. If the price exceeds the record price, the developer will be punished. In order to be able to increase sales, most developers chose to seal the new registration certificate after applying for price adjustment. Only thirty or forty sets of housing are in the market.
In a few days, Hainan is probably half-free, and the new filing certificate will take about a month. The new stocks will be released, mainly until mid-May.
Qiu Shui Bi Tan (ID: qiushuibitan) learned from multiple channels that after the introduction of the free trade port policy, from April 16 to April 17 morning, 14 properties in Hainan have been sold out, 11 properties have been closed, ready to be raised price.
At present, there are several real estates for sale in Hainan, many of which have high-priced registration certificates. For example, a total of 16 buildings, staged sales, Phase I, Phase II and Phase III, all have low-to-high price records, and there are high-priced registration certificates. The real estate will now be sold out, generally rising from 4,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan. Now Sanya South District can choose five or six.
In addition, in the past 2016 to 2017, Hainan housing prices have more than doubled.
During the Spring Festival of 2018, Hainan's housing prices continued to rise. From the year before February to February this year, Hainan's house prices have risen by 10% to 15%.
According to China's housing market data, as of March this year, the highest average price of Sanya property market in Hainan is 3.19 million yuan / square meter, the lowest average price of Suichang is 6440 yuan / square meter, in addition, the average price of Haikou is 17,300 yuan / square meter, Baoting, Lingshui prices near Sanya have broken 20,000 yuan / square meter.
At present, the number of on-site customers in the sales office in Nanhai has also surged. Usually, a sales department, the number of passengers in a day may be twenty or thirty. But these two days are more than two hundred passengers. The transaction conversion rate is around 30%.
Now the intermediaries work overtime every day until one or two o'clock in the evening. They are selling and selling.
There is even an intermediary who said that Qiu Shui wrote that she has already received a performance of 3 million yuan from the beginning of April this year. There are also intermediaries that this is purely flickering, and the performance is indeed rising, but not so powerful.
Forecourt
In 1988, Hainan was separated from Guangdong and built independently. A large number of people came to Hainan for gold mining. Among them, Pan Shiyi, Feng Lun and other later real estate giants Wantong Liujunzi.
In 1988, the average price of real estate was 1,350 yuan / square meter, and in 1992 it soared to 5,000 yuan / square meter. In the first half of 1993, real estate prices reached a peak of 7,500 yuan / square meter, and began to fall in the second half.
At that time, the proportion of speculative purchases in Hainan was as high as 70%. In just three years, house prices have increased by five or six times.
During the real estate bubble period, funds led by the four major banks, including large state-owned enterprises and even large capitals of township enterprises and private capital, entered the real estate market through various channels. At that time, it was said that “to make money, to Hainan; to make a fortune, to speculate†.
By 1993, when Hainan faced severe macroeconomic regulation and control, the four major banks of the state had a bad debt of more than 300 million yuan. The province's unfinished buildings reached 16 million square meters and squeezed more than 800 billion yuan.
After the rapid expansion, the Hainan real estate bubble began to burst.
Subsequently, the vast majority of real estate developers became the bank's debtors, and these debtors left the money they earned, leaving the real estate at a high price to the bank. In the end, with the collapse of the Hainan Development Bank, the bank became the largest developer in Hainan.
“The End of the World, the Cape, and the Unfinished Building†began to become the three major landscapes of Hainan.
This is a scar that is still visible everywhere in Hainan.
Bottom salary
In the past 30 years, both the Hainan provincial government and the central government have become more mature. This short-term speculation that hinders the overall economic stability will not be allowed. Through various measures, Hainan Province has tried to reduce the speculative space of housing prices to the smallest extent. Inside.
This is an ex ante layout, the incident is fierce, and afterwards, the Hainan real estate speculation after the punishment is annihilated.
On April 14, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting Hainan's Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and Opening-up", implemented the tax-free shopping policy for outlying islands, increased tax-free shopping quotas, and encouraged the development of horse racing and other projects. It is clear that by 2025, Hainan will initially establish a free trade port system, and the business environment will reach the domestic first-class level.
The goal is high. In order to achieve this goal, the central government has given many policies to Hainan, and has also formulated many requirements, and made many forward-looking deployments in advance.
The core spirit of these deployments and requirements is that we cannot let the liberal ambition of Freeport become the concept of real estate speculation.
In January of this year, Governor Shen Xiaoming said in the government work report: "Never let Hainan become a real estate processing plant, and rely on the determination of strong men to break the wrist to reduce the dependence of the economy on real estate." This shows that the Hainan provincial government must be realistic in real estate regulation. .
Subsequently, on March 31, Hainan Province issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in Stabilizing the Real Estate Market†(Article 8), requiring non-resident households in the province to purchase only one set of housing in Hainan Province, and provide a five-year social guarantee. The down payment ratio shall not be less than 70%, and the transfer shall be prohibited within 5 years from the date of obtaining the fixed property right certificate.
The New Deal will limit the purchase of a set of individuals from the individual to the family, and the down payment will increase by 40%, which is called "the most stringent regulatory measures in the country."
At the same time, the big move is that in 2017, land supply and transactions in Hainan Province have already been lost.
On April 14 this year, the central government's request went even further. The most stringent land use system was implemented in Hainan, and integrated and unified development of inefficient and scattered land was adopted to ensure that the total amount of construction land in Hainan did not increase on the existing basis.
In addition, Qiu Shui's talks were exclusively learned that on April 16 the Hainan provincial government informed about many developers and intermediaries.
On the afternoon of the same day, the Hainan Provincial Housing and Construction Department also urgently issued a six-point policy requirement for stabilizing the real estate market:
I. Strengthening the responsibility of the main body and implementing the target of quantity and price adjustment
For cities and counties that have implemented weak regulatory targets and whose price and prices are still rising too fast, the Housing and Construction Department will invite the provincial government to conduct accountability and accountability.
Second, strictly implement the “Eight Houses†and strengthen the audit and accountability mechanism.
Government workers who are not strict with the review and even collude with intermediaries or buyers to violate the rules of sales and evade the purchase restriction policy shall be dealt with seriously by the cities and counties according to the law.
Third, strengthen territorial management to prevent speculation and promote housing prices
All municipal and county housing management (residential construction) departments shall conduct interviews with all real estate development enterprises and intermediaries within their respective jurisdictions, and urge them to sell according to law.
Fourth, organize supervision and unannounced visits to make the policy in place
The Housing and Construction Department of Hainan Province will jointly organize the relevant personnel of the Provincial Discipline Inspection Commission to organize relevant personnel to carry out uninterrupted supervision and unannounced visits to the implementation of the “Eight Housing†situation and the fluctuation of the real estate market in each city and county.
5. Carry out special rectification and crack down on illegal and illegal activities
Focus on cracking down on the use of "Fang Ba" and the central New Deal malicious speculation, driving up house prices and illegally making fake purchases, and found that they went together. Real estate development enterprises, intermediaries and their employees who violate laws and regulations must be given the most severe punishment according to the law, until the Hainan market is cleared.
Sixth, strengthen public opinion monitoring, guidance and early warning, sales data daily report
The municipal housing and housing (residential construction) departments of various cities and counties continue to strengthen communication and cooperation with publicity, network, public security, industry and commerce, strengthen public opinion monitoring and public opinion guidance, conduct early warning and investigation of false information, promptly clarify, positively guide, stabilize market expectations. . At the same time, the sales data of commercial housing in each city and county should be reported once a day, and our office will report it to the provincial government in time.
The order is banned and each of the above is prohibited. It can be said that it is a part of the strategy of coercing the behavior of real estate speculation with heavy artillery.
The road is still far away
In terms of the importance of its geographical location, the geographical location of Hainan is undoubtedly the southern gate of China.
But in terms of its current strength and economic status, it is difficult to match this identity.
In order to match this identity and become an important bridgehead for China to stabilize the geopolitics of Southeast Asia, Hainan Province has only one way to go, and it has become stronger.
Looking at the world, the central government set its targets. Only the two targets of Singapore and Hong Kong can be used as reference objects.
Hong Kong has already experienced the bitter fruit of high-rise real estate, and is working hard to digest this bitter fruit. The results are very small and the road is still very long.
The other is Singapore, which is also the only city in Asia that is competitive with Hong Kong and slightly better than the one that wins the perfect public rental system.
How can we go around the detours that others have gone through. Hainan Province has only one road to go, not Hong Kong, but Singapore.
As far as the transcripts of the past 30 years have been concerned, the achievements made by the South China Sea and the policies, financial support and strategic expectations given by the central government have shown an image of Adou, which cannot be afforded.
For the great future, Hainan Province must annihilate the short-term speculation of housing prices, which can even be said to be a battle between you and me.
Dr Liu, a doctoral friend of Qiushui, talked about the future of Hainan Province. It can be said that it is a painful affair. He hates iron and steel. Hainan does not want to open up and compete. Now the central government is forcing her to open up and compete. Hainan is engaged in this. After so many years of travel, I began to shout slogans from the 1990s, saying that I want to dry up Thailand and engage in island tourism. It is almost 30 years old. In addition to the price now surpassing Thailand, the quality has never won Thailand.
Eight years ago, the State Council proposed to build Hainan Island into an international tourist island. So many years ago, this international tourist island, even a tourism project with brand recognition can not get out, just bought a lot of houses for the Northeast compatriots, more The northeast cavity can be heard everywhere.
Now the central government has already moved to Hainan, and has been playing a long-term big game.
In May 2017, he became the deputy secretary of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee. Shen Xiaoming, the provincial governor and party secretary, from March 2015 to September 2016, served as member of the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal Committee and secretary of the Pudong New Area District Committee. China (Shanghai) Freedom Director of the Trade Pilot Zone Management Committee, with outstanding results.
He was sent to Hainan to deploy a free port in advance, and the central government worked hard.
But the power of one person is limited.
The success or failure of Hainan Free Trade Port requires the support of outstanding middle-level cadres, and its existing middle-level cadres, including provincial cadres, many of whom used to be township cadres, jumped up to be leaders and have low academic qualifications. And there is not a lot of experience, and it is impossible to implement these high-level policies of the central government.
To become a major event, Hainan needs more talents and needs to gather talents. Hainan needs more competitive housing prices, a more attractive talent incentive system, better industrial resources, a fairer social system, and better. Educational system.
If we can't open up a wider scope and introduce competition, Hainan will not be able to achieve internationalization. The international tourism center and the free trade port will be empty talks. This will definitely create a bigger bubble.
Hainan real estate speculation has been pumped down, and finally how the fire will stir up, will not let it change the central chess game. If there is no firewood, the fire will naturally go out.
Similarly, with sufficient firepower in the policy, investing enough talents and resources to turn iron into steel, Freeport is only a matter of time.
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