Experts and scholars in the industry have predicted that in 2010, the gradual recovery of private investment, exports, consumption and other demand will gradually replace the reduced demand for weakening stimulus policies. Among them, the export recovery will dominate the Chinese economy in 2010. Nowadays, the Christmas factor is no longer there. The European and American replenishment activities are also coming to an end. Can the export in February continue the rebound trend before the Spring Festival? Has China’s exports really entered a continuous upward trend? More recently, the Shanghai Securities Journal reporter conducted a field survey on the Pearl River Delta region where export enterprises were concentrated. The situation was quite optimistic: At present, the export recovery performance has continued to be strong, and a large number of foreign trade enterprises in the Pearl River Delta have reproduced high-load operations.
On February 26, the reporter went to the investigation of Chenglin shares in Baoan, Shenzhen. This is a company that produces sanitary ware, 90% of which are exported to North America and Europe. Unlike the two-week long vacation in the Spring Festival of 2009, the company received more orders this year and the company started working on the fourth day of the year. The lack of manpower makes the factory need to work overtime almost every day, and implement "two shifts."
In the field research conducted by the Shanghai Securities News reporter on the Pearl River Delta region where export enterprises are concentrated, it was found that the start-up of enterprises and port throughput (not seasonally adjusted) reflected by foreign trade factories, ports, customs, etc. are all optimistic. The export recovery trend from the end of last year continued in February. The industry believes that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in the first quarter of 2010 may be better than the 10% to 15% forecast of some economists and brokerage investment banks, and the situation of export dragging GDP will turn around.
The factory reproduces high-load production in Dongguan Houjie, which is known as the “shoe capitalâ€. The urgent recruitment of enterprises and the emergence of new factories have made it seem that reporters have returned to the financial crisis.
Out of the Houjie bus station, the reporter was treated as a migrant worker, immediately surrounded by recruiters, who constantly put the propaganda materials into the hands of reporters. Out of the "encirclement circle", the simple recruitment billboard made of red paper paste on the wooden board is coming.
Entering the Houjie Bailu Industrial Zone, the reporter found that almost no factory is not lacking in people. Every factory has a recruitment desk at the door, and on the main road with a large flow of people, it is also full of factory recruitment. Booth.
Xiao surnamed staff of Houjie Labor Market told reporters that since October last year, the orders of Dongguan Houjie factory have continued to grow, coupled with the overall export situation this year, the demand for labor is greater, so this year Dongguan Almost all factories in Houjie are recruiting people.
According to the MNI China Business Confidence Survey, the employee demand index rose to 61.3 in February from 53.8 in January, which was the highest in the past five years.
Xu Rongmu, general manager of Huacheng Footwear Company, told reporters that Huacheng Shoes has always been based on domestic sales. In the second half of last year, the company began to receive many orders for export. Therefore, this year Xu Rongmu decided to open a new factory to produce export products.
Xu Huajiang, the general manager of Jida Shoes Co., Ltd., which also exports women's shoes, also revealed to reporters that the company's orders have rebounded significantly since this year. Orders of more than 150,000 pairs have nearly doubled compared with the same period of last year. The total number of orders has exceeded. Before the financial crisis.
"At present, orders have been placed in May, and at this time, orders are more likely to go down to March." Xu Huajiang said that he is more optimistic about the export situation this year.
The newly opened Detai Paper is a new hot spot on this street. Detai Paper Security Team Wu told reporters that "the factory is scheduled to start on March 1st, mainly for exporting gift boxes to the United States. Because the orders received by the headquarters in the second half of last year have increased greatly, it has not been done. So the new factory was opened."
The hot orders in Dongguan Houjie factory in February are only a microcosm of the national manufacturing enterprises. Although the specific order data for February was not disclosed, the MNI China Business Confidence Survey showed that the production and new orders index will hit a new high for many years in February. The overall operating conditions index climbed to 70.4 in February from 63.3 in January, the highest since April 2007.
The port is not light in the off-season
As one of the larger ports in the Pearl River Delta region, the throughput of Yantian Port in Shenzhen is often the vane of exports in the Pearl River Delta region.
Shenzhen Port's cargo throughput has narrowed its decline for 10 consecutive months last year, and the first positive growth since the financial crisis occurred in January this year. According to the statistics report of the Shenzhen Municipal Transportation Commission, in January this year, the cargo throughput of Shenzhen Port increased by 29.12% year-on-year, 1.05% over the previous month; the container throughput increased by 16.14% year-on-year, up 2.24% from the previous month.
Yantian Port in February was equally busy and was not affected by the Spring Festival. On February 26, the reporter came to Yantian Port in Shenzhen. In the international container terminal area, the bang of the motor is heard, and a colorful truck rushes past the body and rushes to the international container terminal. The reporter saw in front of the gate of the container terminal that the truck carrying the container had already arranged a long queue of nearly 500 meters, and there were still trucks joining in the back.
The gate staff told reporters that the period after the Spring Festival is only a low season compared to the end of last year. But this is much better than the cold weather after the Spring Festival in 2009.
Sergeant Wu, the truck driver of SEG Logistics, told reporters that after the Spring Festival, it was originally a low season for port transportation, but this year it has become busy since the beginning of the first month of the first month. Now I have to pull a box of goods every day, and last year, basically one or two boxes of goods can be pulled in one week.
Master Wu recalled that "the off-season of port transportation has rebounded significantly since September last year. By the end of the year, it has entered a relatively busy day. It will pull three or four boxes of goods a day. Because there are too many businesses at the end of the year, there are people on the fourth day of the month. Come to work."
Customs experts pointed out that the port's foreign trade cargo throughput has rebounded, mainly due to the slow recovery of the global economy and the significant recovery of foreign trade exports. Since April last year, foreign trade demand has gradually stabilized and recovered. In June, it entered an accelerated recovery phase. In the fourth quarter, Shenzhen’s foreign trade export volume has turned positive. After entering 2010, the trend of foreign trade recovery is more obvious, and the port business is obviously busy. In January, the foreign trade cargo throughput of Shenzhen Port was 13.739 million tons, an increase of 26.87% year-on-year; the chain also increased by 4.97% last month.
The continued recovery of global demand for global trade demand has also given domestic exporters a shot in the arm. Container shipments, shipping route prices, BDI (Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index), which reflect the global trade status, are all red, indicating that domestic exports will continue to improve in the near future.
Container shipments can be seen as a barometer of global trade. The reporter learned from the CIMC Group, which accounts for 55% of the global container business. Starting in November 2009, the CIMC dry box plant, which was in a semi-discontinued state for a year, began to restart production. Almost all of it has started.
The dry box is mainly used for the transportation of manufactured goods such as electromechanical and clothing. In the first half of 2009, due to the financial crisis, the dry box business of CIMC Group was almost stagnant. In the first half of the year, the dry goods sold in the first half of the year were less than 0.5 million TEU. In June and July of 2009, orders began to improve. At that time, it was only 1,000 to 2,000 TEUs per month. In November, it increased to around 13,000. After November, despite the low season, the company’s dry-box orders continued to climb, December. Increased to more than 20,000 TEUs; this data increased to about 25,000 in January this year. Industry insiders expect that the company's dry box exports will exceed 20,000 cases per month in the first quarter of 2010. It is reported that compared with last year's annual export of less than 300,000 TEU, the company has received nearly 600,000 orders in 2010.
The continuous increase in the price of shipping routes also reflects the rebound in global trade demand. In 2010, the shipping giant has adjusted prices several times. In January and February, container shipping companies such as CSCL raised the freight rates of each route twice.
Recently, COSCO Container Lines and China Shipping Container Lines raised the sea freight rates to the United States and Europe in March and April. Among them, COSCO raised the freight rates from Asia to the United States by US$300 per standard box (40 feet) and 240 US dollars per standard box ( 20 feet), the new price will take effect from April 1. CSCL will increase the freight rate to Europe by US$200 per TEU (40 ft) and US$100 per TEU (20 ft). The new price will take effect from March 1.
The BDI index also showed signs of stabilizing. Last week (February 22-26), BDI remained basically stable, rising 0.88%. Guosen Securities and other securities institutions analyzed that the second quarter of this year, BDI will rise again will be a high probability event.
