Text: Dai Kang / Strategy Chief, Liu Wei / Chemical Chief, Zhang Cheng / Mechanical Chief, Huang Wei / Building Materials Analyst, Zhou Ming / Communications Chief, Wang Nan / Food & Beverage Analyst, Xu Juan / Media Team Leader, Shen Juan / Da Financial leader, Xie Zhicai / car chief, Li Bin / colored first
Guide
This round of style is not determined by the profit trend, and interest rate is the core variable of the dominant style of liquidity judgment! After the ruling party of the central bank, China's monetary policy is difficult to turn loose, the yield curve is flattened, and long-term funds have more cost advantages, which is conducive to the continuity of the leading style. Firmly "take the dragon as the head" and grasp the three types of faucets. (1) In the industry with high prosperity, if the first-line faucet is more expensive than the second-line faucet, buy the second-line spurt to make up; if the first-line faucet is not more expensive than the second-line, strengthen the first line (2) The general industry, the industry concentration increased, the first-line second-line is the share of the squeeze, the first line (3) before the negative caused by the negative is digested, the industry has a positive expectation difference, grasp the leading opportunities.
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Strategy Chief - Dai Kang
We have always insisted on "big beauty" in the past year. It is no exaggeration to say that I am the most specific in judging the big ticket and the style of the dragon head. Last August, I talked about the supply side slow cattle. The beneficiaries were the leading stocks in the supply-side reform industry. Last November, I talked about the slow profit. The ROE turning point benefited most of the cyclical industry leading stocks with increased industry concentration. Since the beginning of the month, we have been steadfastly optimistic about the style of “taking the dragon as the headâ€. There is no very clear industry, more consumption and finance, and some companies with less growth and cycle. Yesterday's leading stocks fell for two consecutive days and underperformed the market again, causing style differences. We sent a report after the close yesterday to suggest that everyone should be firm in style and grasp the leader. Today's conference call mainly answers three questions that the market is most concerned about.
The first question: Why do we insist on CA LL "headed by dragons" every time the market divergence increases? Because we believe that interest rates are the core factor in the current round of market style.
There is a view in the market that the profit trend determines the market style is too large. In fact, the current round of profit trends and styles have neither the correspondence of the starting time nor the historical comparability.
First of all, from the perspective of profitability, although the difference between the growth rate of small cap and market performance has gradually narrowed from 2017, the market has been relatively strong compared to the small cap, but (1) the starting point of the current trend of the market/small cap is 2016. In October of that year, the growth rate of the small-cap stocks in the market was still expanding, and the current round of profit trends and style trends were inconsistent; (2) from the history of 2010, the growth of the market and small-cap There is no obvious correlation between the difference and the style (correlation 0.3). (3) The performance growth rate is a quarterly indicator. The daily style data is still poorly fitted with the frequency, indicating that the profit trend is not a good indicator of the interpretation style. The performance announcement has a lag, and it is more difficult to make forward-looking judgments on style. Secondly, as 2017Q1PP I peaked, the profit cycle also opened the down cycle from the top (although we believe that the toughness is likely to exceed market expectations), but with the acceleration of financial de-leverage in April, the core variables affecting A-shares will be under 2016. The half-year molecular A-share ROE inflection point was transferred to the liquidity contraction under the financial de-leverage of the denominator.
Therefore, I always think that when the liquidity dominates, interest rate is the core variable that determines the style.
M2 represents the capital supply year-on-year, and the newly-increased source of fixed-asset investment represents the real-estate fund, and the A-share owner is ups and downs in the second half of the year (liquidity dominates). From 2007 to 2013, the difference between M2 and fixed asset investment sources was stable around the 0-axis, representing a relatively balanced distribution of funds in the real economy and financial markets. Corresponding to the trend of A-share stock index and industrial enterprise profits, A-shares Lead by profit. In the two periods 2001-2006 and 2014-present, the difference between M2 and fixed-asset investment sources was deviated. In 2001-2003, funds entered the real economy in large quantities, and then there was a repair from the real economy in 2004-2006. A-shares were first suppressed and then raised. From 2001 to 2006, A-share liquidity dominated, and A-shares had little correlation with corporate profits. Since 2014, the funds have been faltered, A-shares have opened up a bull market by liquidity, and in the future, under the policy environment of regulatory and strict financial de-leverage, we will see the difference between the source of M2 and fixed-asset investment funds, funds The stock market is dominated by liquidity, and valuation is a process of contraction.
The market dominated by liquidity, the price of liquidity, and interest rate are the core factors that influence the style of the market. Since 2001-2006 and 2014, the excess returns and interest rates of big tickets have been the same, especially since the short-term interest rate and style are highly correlated after 2014, because the higher-valued votes are more for short-term interest rates. Sensitive, after August 2016, the monetary policy was neutral, and the money market interest rate went up. After 5/6 months, the central bank had a compromise, which became not loose. In June, the effect of making money was a little bit, and the style became basically balanced. So what is important is how interest rates will change in the second half of the year?
One of our basic judgments is that the liquidity honeymoon is nearing the end and will not become wider on the margin. The expectation that the global central bank will withdraw from the easing is further confirmed. Europe is likely to reduce its quantitative easing policy in September. Yellen’s clearing of the Fed’s contraction before the end of the year indicates that the owner (monetary policy) has already reached the front of the (puppy) and has recently developed. The decline in the national stock market stemmed from the increased sensitivity to interest rates. After the Draghi hawks spoke, the 10-year German debt and US bond yields both rose by about 20bp. German DEX and US Nasdaq stock indexes fell. The market's sensitivity to interest rates has increased, and market volatility has rebounded from a low level. The era of global easing is further confirmed. Although China's interest rate is relatively high in the US and Europe, the corresponding stock market is less sensitive to interest rate increases, and the US and European bond yields are relatively indirect to China's interest rate, but the Chinese central bank's monetary policy. It is also difficult for the orientation to go against the major central banks around the world. There is almost no possibility of turning from loose to loose. Domestically, June data shows that China's economic resilience exceeds market expectations, meaning that it will not impose greater constraints on financial deleveraging. We believe that the expectation of further marginal easing of liquidity will be broken, and China's monetary policy will move closer to economic resilience.
The main goal of the People's Bank of China this year is financial security and the balance of payments. After the world's major central banks are more hawkish, monetary policy is difficult to turn loose. The current China yield curve is extremely flat, which may also be what the central bank wants to see. The higher short-term interest rate will help to de-leverage, but avoid the long-term interest rate increase and increase the financing cost of the real economy. The flattening of the yield curve on the style of the equity market is a leading style that makes long money more cost-effective than short-term speculative funds, and is more conducive to better risk-earnings and lower expected yields.
The second question is: What other factors besides interest rates are taking advantage of the trend? I think that the position structure + regulatory reshaping + marginal funds are enhancing the sustainability of "taking the dragon as the head", and these logics have not been destroyed.
We analyzed the position of the White Horse Index, compared with the standard deviation of 3.9 times of the overweight ratio of the computer sector in 2015. The position of the White Horse sector is within one standard deviation of the historical average. The White Horse sector has not yet formed a trading crowd.
In the past, A-shares have given a valuation system based on the growth of premium companies such as mergers and acquisitions, and are being revalued due to the continuous improvement of the series of policies such as IPO issuance normalization and new regulations for refinancing and new regulations. The series of regulatory policies raises the A-share liquidity premium and credit premium. “Leading with the dragon†benefited from the revaluation of the value under regulatory reshaping.
The institutionalization of A-shares is an inevitable trend. Under the stock market, A-share investors have increasingly emphasized the investment direction and investment style of new funds. The northward funds, especially the deep-shares, have continued to be active, and the weighting of positions from the north to the funds. The average market value can be seen that the average market value of Shenzhen Stock Connect has gradually increased. Strengthen the style characteristics of A-shares to buy the leader with “great beautyâ€.
The third question is how do trade-offs of different industry leaders stick or spread?
(1) In industries with high prosperity, if the first-line faucet is more expensive than the second-line faucet, buy the second-line spurt to make up; if the first-line faucet is not more expensive than the second-line faucet,
(2) The general economy of the industry, the concentration of the industry is increasing, the first-line to the second-line is the share of the share, a firm line
(3) The decline caused by bad interest has been digested, and the industry has a positive expectation difference, grasping the leading opportunities
Next, please ask our industry analysts to recommend which leading stocks are on the road.
Chemical Chief - Liu Wei
Our recently recommended Tongkun shares 601233, the diagnostic stock (601233) is strong, this comment is as follows:
1. The downstream demand is expected to improve steadily, and the company's profit trend is improving. With the approaching period of autumn and winter fabrics approaching, the market wait-and-see mood gradually subsided, and the short-term oil price and PTA price rebound helped the polyester filament yarn to improve. At present, the production and sales in the East China market are in good condition. At present, the industry inventory is only one week, and the company's profit trend is improving.
2. The leading position of the industry is gradually recognized by the market, and the valuation has potential for improvement. Although the company's performance follows a certain short-term volatility of oil prices, its medium and long-term profitability is stable. Under the background of tight monetary policy, it still has the potential to continuously expand production capacity and increase market share. The leading position is expected to continue to consolidate.
3. Participate in the refinery project of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the subsequent growth is highly certain. The company participates in the construction of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 40 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project. The first phase of the project is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2018. By then, the company's raw material protection will be further improved and the profit prospects will be good (conservative estimates can contribute more than 1 billion net profit) .
Risk warning: the risk of resumption of production of PTA shutdown equipment and the risk of large fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Mechanical Chief - Zhang Cheng
Excavator sales in June are expected to exceed 100% year-on-year. In the third quarter, excavator sales may remain at a high level, which will exceed market expectations.
Our model estimates that the annual sales volume of excavators is 10-12 million units, and the sales growth rate in 2016 is between 50% and 70%. From the current situation, the probability of a year-on-year growth rate close to 70% continues to increase.
Maintain our view on the industry recommendation, we still push the main stock: Liugong 000528, the stock . Liugong is the leader of loaders and excavators. The median report is expected to be around 250 million, and it will exceed 400 million in the whole year, which will greatly exceed market expectations. Next year, we expect revenue to continue to grow, profits will reach 800 million, and the valuation will drop to 12 times. We expect ROE to return to the 12% level next year, with a reasonable Pb of 1.5 times and a market space of 50%.
Continue key recommendation large cold 000,530 shares, shares of diagnosis, the rise of new retail exclusive leading provider of equipment, cold chain logistics industry, performance is at an inflection point: 2017 ~ 2018 CAGR of 37% three-year results, net profit was 2.3, 3.4 billion yuan, PE is 24 and 16 times. We think the target price is 10 bucks and 50% of the space.
1. The associate company focuses on the consumption end of food and medical cold chain logistics, with a compound growth rate of 30% in three years. 1) Vending machine - three major customers Wahaha, Nongfu Spring, Zhengda food layout new retail business, vending machine annual compound demand growth rate of 60%; 2) supermarket display cabinet - with family convenience, Rosen convenience cooperation, three years compound The growth rate is 25%; 3) The ultra-low temperature medical cabinet industry is in a monopoly position, and the demand affected by the vaccine event is rigid, with a compound growth rate of 50% in three years.
2. The intelligent factory of the headquarters was put into operation, the labor cost decreased by 8%, the production cost decreased by 5%, and the profitability began to increase in the second half of the year. The gross profit margin is expected to gradually increase from 18% to 25%, and the net profit rate will gradually increase to 5%.
3, risk warning: additional ban, the psychological level pressure is greater than the actual impact. At present, the issuance of additional accounts is a loss. In the next two years, the company is in a rapid growth period, and the willingness of shareholders to increase their holdings in the short term is not strong.
Building Materials Analyst - Huang Wei
Continue to recommend Tiehan Ecology 300197, the stock
1. The leader of the garden enterprise, the ability to sign the order is outstanding, and the orders in hand are full. In 2016, the newly signed construction contract was 12.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of more than 260%, of which the PPP project amounted to 7.599 billion yuan. From 2017 to the present, the newly signed contract is close to 10 billion yuan, and the PPP project amount is about 7.8 billion yuan. As of the end of 2016, the unfinished contract in hand reached 13.846 billion yuan. We expect the company to show an acceleration in the second half of the year.
2. The PPP project enters the peak of income settlement, and the profit elasticity can be expected. The company started a large-scale new PPP contract in 2016. Due to the long preparation period from signing the bidding contract to the start of construction, the income from the PPP project will be released on a large scale this year, which provides the company with strong performance flexibility. The company established a number of PPP investment funds to ensure the landing of PPP projects.
3. The company has completed the second-phase employee stock ownership plan, with an average purchase price of 12.19 yuan/share, costing 778 million yuan. The scope of incentives has been further expanded, and the company's interests have become stronger and stronger, and the release of performance is stronger. Under the background of the market preference industry leader and the determination of growth, the faster growth rate of the mid-year report is expected to become a favorable catalyst for the stock price.
Chief Communications Officer - Zhou Ming
In the context of declining market risk appetite, recent exchanges with investors have revealed that companies are more deeply involved in corporate research and are constantly looking for certain investment opportunities. At the same time, we saw that the A-shares in June were included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the MSCI ACWI Global Index, and continued to adhere to the white horse leader in the industry strategy. In the first half of the year, the first-line white horses rose better. We believe that the market is expected to continue to the second-line Baima leader. It is recommended to recommend the gold stocks in July--the low-value and high-growth fiber optic cable leading Hengtong Optoelectronics 600487, the stock , and the first half of our recommendation. leading shares: ZTE 000063, attending stocks, Hytera 002 583, diagnostic equipment 300308 shares and interpersonal, clinic shares.
Fiber optic cable faucets will be approved for approval, low valuation and high growth model. The results of the second batch of general cable bidding were announced. The top six manufacturers' bids (76%) were slightly higher than the first batch (73%), and the long-term and the Hengtong series (51.51%) were combined. Compared with the first batch share (44.06%), the growth rate is 7.45%, indicating that the market concentration will continue to move closer to the leading manufacturers with light bar capacity. We believe that under the condition of tight global light bar supply, the fiber optic cable leader Hengtong Optoelectronics will benefit the market. The continuous increase in concentration has opened up gaps with other manufacturers and improved profitability. The semi-annual report is expected to increase by 100%. At the same time, the project has been approved successfully. Hengtong Optoelectronics has continuously developed and developed new businesses around the original optical communication industry: new energy, broadband access, big data, etc. We believe that with the successful development of fundraising projects, emerging businesses will help the company to bring Come to new growth points and optimize the income structure. As our July gold stocks, we continue to recommend Hengtong Optoelectronics.
ZTE's valuation of communications equipment leader is at a historically low level. At the recent 2017 World Mobile Congress Shanghai, the Massive MIMO products on display at ZTE became the highlight of the show, and Pre5G is the world leader in business. After 3G / 4G development, domestic enterprises represented by ZTE Hua gradually changed from chasers to standard setters. In the future, ZTE is expected to enter the top three in the world through 5G development. The company has strong technical accumulation in the field of NB-IoT, and the number of patents of Internet of Things ranks first in the domestic market. On June 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document to accelerate the development of domestic NB-IoT, optimistic about the company's full benefits in this field. In the future, with the improvement of company management, endogenous growth is better. ZTE's historical average PE is about 30 times, and it is currently at the bottom of the historical valuation center. I am optimistic that China's communications equipment enterprises will lead the world in the 5G competition, and recommend communication equipment vendors to lead ZTE.
High-end optical module faucet in the inter-equipment, the standard scarcity of future growth is determined . After the acquisition of Suzhou Xuchuang, Zhongji Equipment became the only full-scale 100G optical module manufacturer in China, and the company has an absolute advantage in packaging and automation production. AAOI, the leader of the data center optical module, expects data center revenue to increase by 85% year-on-year in 17 years. Suzhou Xuchuang has a high probability of exceeding its performance targets this year. Domestic Ali has completed the 100G test, and we expect that the demand for high-speed optical modules in China's data center will begin to start in 2018, and the future performance growth will continue. The medium-sized equipment is recommended. In the case that the data center optical module procurement certification window has been closed, the intermediate equipment has certain scarcity.
The convergence trend of private network wide and narrow bands is obvious, and the global influence of Chinese leading companies is increasing. We believe that the private network industry has a clear pattern, and the domestic leading Hainengda has seized the opportunity of “modulo-turning†and has already begun to show its enthusiasm; the future of wide-narrow and narrow-band integration will evolve smoothly, and the advantage of narrow-band leading will continue; the company has completed the first TETRA in the world. The acquisition of the brand Sipule is expected to integrate the TETRA product lines of both parties and further reduce costs based on shared R&D and sales. Under the circumstance of the global anti-terrorism crisis, the company has been cultivating the market of developing countries in Asia and Africa based on the layout of European and American markets. The market share has been continuously improved. In the near future, the emerging countries of the “Belt and Road†will cooperate to build a national private network. Since the beginning of the year, we have been continuously harvesting large-scale domestic and regional special networks. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term development of the company and recommend Hainengda, the leader of the special network.
In the context of declining market risk appetite, recent discussions with investors revealed that everyone is studying the company.
Food and beverage analyst - Wang Nan: Recommended faucet 600,519 Moutai, attending shares and 603,288 Haitian flavor industry, attending stocks
Kweichow Moutai : Kweichow Moutai is firmly recommended in the absence of a callback in a batch of prices, and the ex-factory price increase is not yet expected. This round of residents' real estate in the short-term rapid appreciation of high-end liquor consumption cost-effective background, strong downstream demand and low inventory levels, short-term Maotai Q3 will be heavy, next year there will be room for price increases, to maintain buying.
Haitian Weiye : The trend of the recovery of mass consumption in this round is determined. The flavor of the seasonings with high dependence on the food and beverage channels has entered the upward channel. Haitian Weiye has won the favor through its marketing and channel advantages. The performance elasticity comes from the market concentration. Upgrade and product price increase to maintain buy.
Media leader - Xu Juan: pay attention to the price increase of textbooks, select the leading
In July, we officially entered the summer and mid-term seasons. Our monthly investment opinion is to pay attention to the price increase policy of the publishing section, and to select stocks from the bottom up:
1) The newspaper reported beautiful, over-expected sectors and individual stocks: Perfect World 002624, diagnostic stock , Kunlun Wanwei 300418, diagnostic stock , travel network 002174, diagnostic stock , Sanqi mutual entertainment 002555, diagnostic stock , Chinese film 600977, diagnostic stock , Leo shares 002131, diagnostic stock ;
2), teaching materials and supplementary publishing business will be expected to usher in the situation of rising volume and price, focus on price expectations, flexible stocks: Southern Media 601900, diagnostic stock , Zhongnan Media 601098, diagnostic stock , Phoenix Media 601928, diagnostic stock , City Media 600229, diagnostic stock ;
3), short-term catalyst stocks: the network of tourists ("Army League" movie linkage products on July 6 public beta), perfect world ("CS:GO" national service is expected to go online in July, CSL2017 summer game will be July Opening on the 6th), Sanqi Mutual Entertainment ("The Secret Agent Huang Chu Chuqiao" the same name page tour will be launched in July-August), Chinese film (mainly controlled by the "Jianjun Day" released on July 28)
Highly recommented:
Chinese film: The national import film increased by about 34% in the first half of the year, paying attention to the August 1st "Building the Army"
Imports constitute the main driving force for 17-year box office growth. Regardless of service fees, the national box office growth rate in the first half of the year was about 3.5%, while the growth rate of imported films was about 34%, and the company's share in the imported film distribution market was about 60%. %, according to our calculations, for every 1 billion box-office increase in imported films, the profit contribution to China Film will be around 32 million yuan. The heat of the 17-year import film will directly promote the company's performance growth. Short-term attention to the "Jianjun Daye" released at the end of July: "Jianjun Daye" is the third part of a series of films. As a tribute film, it is expected to occupy a considerable advantage in the film. It is estimated that the EPS of 2017-2018 is 0.76 yuan and 0.82 yuan, and the corresponding PE level is 25X and 23X. Maintain Buy rating.
Zhongnan Media: Publishing industry leader, high dividend rate + stable cash flow
The company is the leader in the publishing industry. In 2017, Hunan Province decided to raise the pricing of teaching materials, which will bring certain gross profit repairs to the company. It is expected that the company's net profit growth rate will maintain double-digit growth in 2017-2019. We believe that the company's 2017 PE valuation range is 18-20X, and the target price is 20.7-23.0 yuan. Catalysts are textbook price increases and the addition of MICI expectations.
Big Financial Leader - Shen Juan: China Taibao 601601, Diagnostic Stock -Value Oriented, Steady Management
The earliest companies that have made value transformations have a reasonable product maturity structure and a high proportion of traditional guarantee products. The new business value rate is 33% in 2016, leading the industry. Taibao has been working hard for a long time in the field of old-age care, and will benefit from the introduction of the pension insurance policy.
Channel improvement and structural optimization have promoted high growth in life insurance business. In the first quarter, the personal insurance channel grew rapidly, achieving a business income of 67.64 billion yuan and YoY+54.1%. Among them, the new insurance business was 27.94 billion yuan, and YoY+67.7%; while the new insurance business was mainly due to payment, and the premium paid during the period accounted for 97.5%. The transformation of the “focus period†was effective, and the renewal premium was 39.69 billion yuan, and YoY+45.8%, which effectively promoted the steady growth of premiums. The enhancement of individual insurance channels, the growth of premiums and the renewal of business will ensure the enhancement of the new business value rate and the rapid growth of new business value.
Group's asset allocation strategy is still showing robust features, CPIC Asset Management intends to 1.045 billion yuan acquisition of Guotai Junan 601211, clinics shares held by Guotai Junan Allianz Fund 51% stake, raised funds will be given after the successful acquisition of the license, the company's information management business strategic plan will be Further deepening. Property insurance development remained stable, and property and casualty insurance was the primary target of underwriting profit. The company's steady development value advantage continues, the current valuation of 1.05 times is still low, the previous shareholder pressure has basically cleared through the block trade, the largest stock suppression factor is eliminated, continue to be optimistic.
China Merchants Bank 600036, diagnostic stock - retail leader, value white horse
1. The transition to retail is the general direction of the development of the banking industry. As early as 2014, China Merchants Bank took the lead in proposing a “one-two-wing†reform strategy focusing on retail. In 2016, retail finance accounted for half of the three indicators of loan balance, operating income and pre-tax profit. The positioning of retail banks gives China Merchants Bank a low-cost debt advantage. At the end of 2016, the company's demand deposits accounted for 63% of the total, ranking the top five branches and stocks. The cost ratio of interest-bearing liabilities ranks at the bottom of A-share listed banks. The upward trend of interest rates will steadily expand the margin space of China Merchants Bank and increase the profitability of the Bank.
2. China Merchants Bank has sufficient capital. At the end of March 2017, the capital adequacy ratio, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio were 14.4%, 12.4% and 12.4% respectively. All three indicators are leading in the stock market, which is second only to ICBC and CCB. In March 2017, the company released the preferred stock plan of not more than 35 billion yuan for the first time, and the capital continued to be consolidated. Under the MPA framework, the bank's capital adequacy ratio determines the upper limit of asset expansion. In the future, if the underlying assets are implemented with a penetrating risk weight, there will be higher requirements for bank capital replenishment. China Merchants Bank with sufficient capital is more flexible than its peers in terms of regulatory pressure.
4. The quality of China Merchants Bank's assets has entered an improvement period. In the first quarter of 2017, China Merchants Bank's non-performing loans first achieved a quarter-on-quarter decline in the stock market, a decrease of 1% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year growth rate of only 14%. The non-performing loan ratio was 1.76%, a decrease of 11 bp from the previous month, which was the largest decline in the stock market. The provision coverage ratio has also regained 200% of the pace, reaching 209%. The stock is second only to Industrial Bank 601166, and the stock has strong risk resistance.
5. The strategic transformation of China Merchants Bank's “One Body and Two Wings†has achieved remarkable results. Capital abundance and asset quality improvement provide a solid foundation for the development of China Merchants Bank. The EPS of the company is expected to be 2.67, 2.91 and 3.22 yuan respectively in 2017-2019. In 2017, it corresponds to 8.95 times of PE and 1.34 times of PB. Maintain “overweight†rating.
Car Chief - Xie Zhicai: Industry differentiation, leading the way
The growth rate of the industry is declining, and it is necessary to tap into the sub-sectors where the growth rate is higher than that of the industry. We believe that the leading brands of premium self-owned brands + luxury car dealers, the replacement of local parts and components, and the leader of the new energy automobile industry chain are the second half of the auto industry. The main line.
Comprehensive valuation, market position, growth prospects, we recommend: SAIC Group 600104, diagnostic stock , Guanghui Group
SAIC Group : The new model will help and advance the goal of the new four. 1) The company is the leader of the blue-chip enterprise of the whole vehicle. The dividend ratio in the past three years is higher than 50%, maintaining a high dividend yield (5.3% in 2016). 2) Self-owned brand passenger vehicles benefit from Rongwei and MG models, which are expected to significantly improve their performance; joint venture brands ushered in a new product cycle, SUV layout is perfect, and further enhance competitiveness; 3) The company's “new four†(motorized, networked) , intelligent, shared) strategy is constantly advancing, breaking through the long-term development of the ceiling; 4) 2017-2019 company's net profit to the mother will reach 36.27 billion, 39.87 billion, 43.13 billion, corresponding to EPS of 3.10 yuan, 3.41 yuan, 3.69 yuan, The company gradually changed the previous situation of relying on joint venture brands. The sales volume and performance of independent brands ushered in the heavy volume period, which will drive up its valuation level and maintain the “Buy†rating.
Guanghui Auto 600297, diagnostic stock : benefit from the growth of luxury cars, and force derivative business. 1) Under the background of slowing industry growth, the company's excellent performance, first quarter performance of 970 million, yoy +31.88%, is expected to achieve annual growth rate of 30% +; 2) acquisition synergy appears, focusing on luxury and ultra-luxury brands Luxury car 4S stores accounted for 26%, and the sales growth rate in the next five years is expected to be higher than the passenger car industry growth level, driving the company's overall profitability to continue to improve; 3) the company's 2016 maintenance services, financial leasing and used cars The gross profit margin of the agency business was 33.51%, 69.64% and 77.59%, which effectively compensated for the low gross profit defect of the traditional new car dealership business. The company's derivative business has obvious advantages. With the future of China's auto finance penetration rate and used car business volume, the transaction volume will continue to increase. The company's automotive aftermarket derivative business is expected to continue to increase revenue share and further enhance the company's profitability; 4) It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2017-19 will be approximately 1615/1754/190 billion yuan, and the net profit will be approximately 37.21/43.75 respectively. /50.87 billion yuan, EPS is 0.52/0.61/0.71 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Non-ferrous chief - Li Bin: Resolutely optimistic about the continued increase in 2017-19 aluminum, rare earth and zirconium supply and demand pattern continued to improve, recommend "Shen Sheng" combination!
Shenhuo shares 000933, diagnostic stock
Core conclusion: Fully benefit from the black non-ferrous supply side reform, the net profit forecast for 2017-18 is 1.237 billion and 1.469 billion, corresponding to the closing price of 2017.7.5 PE is about 12X and 10X.
Assets are still undervalued, and cheap is king! According to (1.1 times), the value of light in electrolytic aluminum production capacity (1.15 million tons) is 12.6 billion. The current price of PE is 10 times higher. Xinjiang and Shandong and other electrolytic aluminum towns gradually implement supply-side reforms. According to the marginal cost curve, the future alumina price is expected to exceed 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to reach 1.5-16,000 yuan/ton.
The coal profit is stable, and enjoy the fruit of the black supply side. The total profit of 8 million tons of coal production capacity exceeds 200 yuan. At present, the net profit contribution of mine disasters can still reach more than 700 million yuan, and the coal price will increase by 10 yuan each, and the net profit will be more than 40 million yuan.
Firmly optimistic about the upward price of aluminum, both flexible and revaluated. The shortage of output pulse + prebaked anode for reform will inevitably lead to the continuous rise of aluminum prices in the third and fourth quarters. The price of 15,000 yuan / ton of aluminum only corresponds to 7 times PE, will welcome the Weiss double rise.
Shenghe Resources 600392, diagnostic stock
Core conclusions: Rare earth and titanium-zirconium double price increases, with high valuation and flexibility.
The company's smelting and separation capacity of rare earth oxides and rare earth metals is close to 20,000 tons/year; Wensheng New Materials acquired in early 2017 has 180,000 tons of zircon sand and 300,000 tons of titanium concentrate processing capacity, and has formed rare earth and titanium zirconium. The entire industrial chain layout of resources. Since 2016Q4, zircon sand has increased by 36%, and the main rare earth varieties have increased by more than 30%; both are good for the company's performance.
It is estimated that the net profit of the company will be 3.52/4.41/465 billion in the 17-19 years. Assuming that the average price of rare earth oxides and rare earth metals increases by 30% in 2017, the net profit for 2017 is expected to be 696 million yuan.
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