In the third quarter, the analysis of the economic situation in the first half of the year and the deployment of important high-level meetings for economic work in the second half of the year were successively held. The State Council Executive Meeting is an important meeting for daily deployment of economic work, and its theme keywords outline the ecological map of economic development.
According to the statistics of the First Financial Daily reporter, as of July 30, 2014, the State Council executive meeting was held 23 times.
On the whole, promoting reform, adjusting the structure, and benefiting the people's livelihood are the main lines of the tandem policy. The key words involved include: decentralization, social security, negative list, credit, security, innovation, entrepreneurship, law, culture, and environmental protection. Environmental, medical, pharmaceutical, pollution, education, personnel, employment, capital, finance, transportation, micro-micro, agriculture, etc.
The executive slogans of decentralization, negative lists, environmental protection, and other last year's executive meetings did not maintain high-frequency exposure this year.
According to statistics, the top three most frequently accepted as key words by executive meetings this year are innovation and entrepreneurship; capital and finance, security; micro, employment, and security.
Several experts believe that the economic fluctuations in the first half of the year have focused attention on activating the market's endogenous motivation and directed “micro-stimulusâ€, which reflects the government's efforts to concentrate on solving major problems.
According to Liu Peilin, deputy director and researcher of the development strategy and regional economic research department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, it is worth noting that the fact that some high-frequency words appear less often does not mean less efforts. It has become a separate topic, but it has always been involved in various reforms and deployments and it has become a work 'inertia'."
Key words: stimulate market vitality
According to statistics, there are nine executive meetings that include innovation and entrepreneurship as keywords, and the number of mentions is as high as 41. Both data are ranked first.
From a time-wise perspective, the executive meetings in April, May and June referred to this issue more frequently. In addition, there were five meetings that included capital and financial reform as a key word, and the number of mentions was 35 times. Safeguard "the second place in the high frequency word."
These two major policy trends are on the one hand strengthening institutional reforms, further regulating and improving the market, and providing environmental support for the development of enterprises; on the other hand, they are reforming and standardizing fiscal, taxation, finance, and capital markets to provide enterprises with “real money and silverâ€. The protection.
For example, on January 22 this year, the meeting decided to reform the central government’s scientific research projects and fund management measures; on March 15, the deployment will further promote the healthy development of the capital market; on April 2, it will study the expansion of the scope of preferential income tax policies for small and micro enterprises; April 23 Japan will determine the policies and measures for further implementing the autonomy of enterprises’ investment, and deploy and promote fair market competition to maintain the normal order of the market; on May 30, it was determined to further reduce and standardize enterprise-related charges to reduce the burden on enterprises, deploy and implement financial support for the real economy. On June 11, the decision was made to simplify the collection rate of certain consolidated taxpayers for consolidated VAT and reduce the burden on enterprises.
Liu Peilin believes that what is needed most at present is to create a fair and equitable market environment, and the legal system is obviously short-circuited.
Zhang Mounen, an associate researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, suggested that the new round of financial reforms must strengthen the synergy with fiscal and taxation system reforms. The fiscal and taxation system reforms must re-adjust the allocation of financial and administrative powers between the central and local governments, and gradually change the existing financing models of local governments and open up local governments. New financial resources, the establishment of local independent taxes, etc. to replace the "land finance."
Keyword two: micro-stimulation
Judging from the attitudes of various official institutions, in the first half of the year, China's economic operation is still within a reasonable range, but downward pressure still exists. Problems in the real economy begin to be transmitted to the financial sector, and financial risks have spread and spread to a certain extent.
Starting in late March, a series of policies called “micro-stimulation†by the market are intensively distributed in various executive meetings, including railways, shed change, interest rates, taxes and fees.
On April 2nd, it studied the scope of the implementation of preferential policies for the expansion of small and micro enterprise income tax, deployed support for the further development of development finance to shanty towns, and determined the policies and measures for deepening the reform of the railway investment and financing system and accelerating the railway construction; April 23, Decided to launch a number of projects to encourage social capital participation in infrastructure and other areas.
The subsequent several standing meetings focused on stabilizing exports, accelerating the development of productive service industries and accelerating the construction of major water conservancy projects for water saving and water supply, and stressing the important role of these measures in “promoting stable economic growthâ€.
Since May, the government has introduced the expansion of tax reductions for small and micro enterprises, the expansion of export tax rebates, the increase of investment targets for railways, and the central bank’s two announcements of targeted downward adjustments to release subsidies for targeted support of “three rural issuesâ€, micro- and shed change, and After a series of "micro-stimulation" policies such as loans, a number of major economic indicators rebounded, initially curbing the economic downturn.
According to Guan Qingyou, deputy dean of the People's Livelihood Research Institute, the current economy is facing downward pressure. The central government is obviously worried that if it does not increase its policy hedging efforts, there will be no way to talk about "stabilizing and progressing," and even a systemic outbreak may occur. Financial risks. "Micro-stimulus" aims to "stabilize" and prevent risks instead of seeking "fast" and old ways. Under such circumstances, the economy may still have downward pressure in the second half of the year, but the trend will be relatively smooth. .
Key words three: employment security support
The people's livelihood issues covered almost all the State Council executive meetings in the first half of the year, among which the protection and employment issues were mentioned most frequently.
According to statistics, there were 5 times of the standing conferences that included protection as the theme. The vocabulary was mentioned 19 times; personnel and employment were listed as topics for 3 times. A total of 13 mentions were made.
On January 8th, the first meeting of the State Council executive meeting this year was to discuss the deployment of the basic livelihood security for the poor people in the winter and spring and to increase the basic old-age pension for enterprise retirees. The meeting proposed to cover the "bottom line" of protection; February 7th. The meeting decided to merge the new rural social endowment insurance and the urban residents' social endowment insurance. It is clear that "the guarantee function of the system should be brought into play so that hundreds of millions of old people can have a bottom in their hearts and have no worry in their basic lives."
When Premier Li Keqiang responded to reporters' questions during the two sessions this year, he stated that the reason for setting the economic growth rate at around 7.5% is to ensure employment and benefit the people and increase the income of urban and rural residents. "We pay more attention to the people's livelihood behind the numbers. , employment behind growth."
According to Jiang Chao, chief analyst of Haitong Securities Macro Bonds, according to estimates of the number of college graduates and the number of new migrant workers entering the city this year, the supply of new labor in cities and towns was 8.60 million to 10.2 million in 2014. On the demand side, according to 1 unit of GDP The conservative estimate that growth can create nearly 1.5 million jobs will create a demand of 10.5 million people without the risk of accidental shocks.
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