[China Glass Network] The EU has been a big trading partner for China in recent years. Experts pointed out that once the European sovereign debt crisis intensifies, it will inevitably affect China's exports to Europe. Among them, Spain and Italy are very close to the trade relations with China in the EU member states. If the crisis spreads to these countries, the impact on China's exports cannot be ignored.
Among the main targets of China's foreign trade exports, the top three are the EU, the United States and Japan, which account for more than 60% of China's total exports. In particular, the EU is China's former big trading partner, the former large export market, the former large technology introduction source and the second largest import market.
Euro's weak export suffered losses
As the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro continues to rise, on the basis of the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar, the effective exchange rate of the renminbi will also pick up, and it will not be conducive to exports.
"In the past six months, we have been under pressure from the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro. We have found that some of the contracts being executed have been settled according to the original exchange rate. In fact, they have already lost money." Guo Shixian, manager of the business development department of Sanxin International Electric (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. yesterday The reporter said.
Qi Zhongyi, director of the Information Department of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, said that since the second half of last year, the euro has continued to depreciate by more than 15% against the renminbi, causing many Chinese companies to suffer "great losses."
On the other hand, whether the deterioration of the European debt crisis will affect China's monetary policy operation has also become the focus of market attention. Relevant experts believe that the deterioration of the European debt crisis and the consequent global financial market turmoil, as well as concerns about the possible slowdown in China's economic growth, are very similar to a year ago.
Zhang Ming, deputy director of the International Finance Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the outbreak of the crisis will cause China to face a larger inflow of international capital in the short term.
Zhang Ming believes that the current global liquidity is still loose, and the resurgence of the European debt crisis will delay the withdrawal of the European Central Bank from loose monetary policy. At this time, those countries that continue to raise interest rates, have large expectations of currency appreciation, or may reverse the asset market will become the destination countries for hot money inflows. The large-scale capital outflow will undoubtedly affect the trend of China's asset prices.
Order default risk has risen sharply
It is worth noting that China's export enterprises are not only affected by the exchange rate. In the interview, the reporter found that the debt crisis in European countries has spread to the real economy, and enterprises have shown signs of bankruptcy. The collapse of these merchants will likely lead to the downstream export enterprises of our province, causing problems in their capital flow.
Due to the European debt crisis, many European countries' credit ratings have been lowered. In the interview, the reporter found that the use of export letters of credit has also been problematic. Enterprises have reported that banks have begun to refuse to accept mortgages or reduce loans. The reporter also learned from China Export Insurance that the European trade default rate against Guangdong is gradually rising.
Sun Wei, director of the Claims Recovery Department of China Export Credit Insurance Guangdong Branch, said: "According to the overseas buyer's insurance information notified by the export enterprises in Guangdong, we found that the risk of buyers in Europe continued to rise, following the number of reported losses to European buyers in 2008. After an annual increase of 360%, the number of reported damages to European buyers in 2009 increased by 187% compared with 2008."
European market demand is difficult to recover in the short term
The continued weak demand in the future European market may be glimpsed at the 109th Canton Fair that just came to an end.
Wen Zhongliang, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, told this reporter that the second and third phases of the second and third phases of daily necessities, gifts, textiles, shoes and hats, etc., from Europe and the United States, decreased, demonstrating that local consumption is weak. Residents' consumption is still very cautious. "In the case of the 109th Canton Fair, the EU's demand is still in a downward state for at least the next six months."
Chen Deming said, "It is hard to say whether these countries with deep debt crisis can recover completely within 3-5 years."
□ Linking Guangdong enterprises to prevent data from the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first four months of this year, Guangdong’s exports to the EU were US$22.26 billion, up 20.4% year-on-year.
The relevant person in charge of the Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Department of Guangdong Province told this reporter that with the appreciation of the renminbi against the euro, Europe is the second largest market for export in our province, which has a significant impact on the export enterprises of our province. However, he also stressed that since the raw material prices have been unstable and the pressure for RMB appreciation has not been reduced since last year, exporting companies have been mainly short-term and small orders, and have also adopted some methods, such as contracts signed at floating exchange rates, etc. Exchange rate risk, so the total loss will not be very heavy.
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