The rumors that the tax rebates on textile exports will be lowered will emerge one after another from the first quarter of this year. Recently, there is news that the export tax rebate rate for textile products will be lowered in the middle of the year, with a reduction of 5 percentage points from the current 16% to 11%. Rumor has it that the market is hard to avoid. However, the author believes that it is extremely unlikely that such a large-scale downward adjustment of textile export tax rebate rate will be conducted.
Recalling the background of the last country's adjustment of tax rebates on textile exports: Since August 2008, the country has raised the export tax rebate rate for textiles and clothing four times in a short period of six months, accumulatively increasing the original 11% to 16%. This is due to the combination of multiple factors such as the appreciation of renminbi, rising costs, and shrinking international demand. The growth rate of China's textile and apparel exports has been declining significantly. The Pearl River Delta region and other regions have successively experienced a series of corporate failures. The adjustment of this round of export tax rebate rate is used to help enterprises tide over the difficulties of the financial crisis.
Looking at the current situation, although the performance of China's textile and garment export data in the first quarter of 2011 exceeded the market's expectations, if it is carefully studied, it is not difficult to find that the increase in export product prices is an important contributor to the growth of exports in the first quarter. On the other hand, at the 109th Canton Fair that had just ended, many companies were worried that due to widespread concern about policy adjustments and rising costs, suppliers were afraid to accept long orders, and buyers were still doubtful about the outlook, placing orders. cautious. Nearly 90% of the short orders in this session of the Canton Fair, long-term single accounted for nearly 10%.
The author believes that due to the current government's efforts to control the size of the commemorative reserve and the huge export surplus in textiles and apparel, it is unrealistic to expect the government to introduce policies to stimulate textiles and apparel products in the near future. The previous rumors are not groundless. . However, the previous rumors were only due to the consultation of the relevant departments, and not the final policy plan. The content of the consultation draft is only to adjust the tax rebate rate of some textile and apparel products by 2-3%.
Recent rumors said that all relevant departments have basically reached an agreement and the rate of reduction of textile export tax rebates will not be less than 5 percentage points, which seems to mean that all products have been reduced by more than 5 percentage points. This is obviously not in line with the rules for the introduction of policies, policies are generally a small test, and then gradually progress, it is impossible to directly under this heavy hand. According to rumors, the government should raise the interest rate by 2 percentage points at a time when suppressing inflation and increase the reserve ratio by 10 percentage points at a time. Obviously, any responsible government will not do so, not to mention the textile industry, which involves tens of thousands of people.
In early April of this year, according to the author's understanding, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and relevant state departments have discussed whether to adjust the export tax rebate for some products. According to the actual export situation in 2010, the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will involve export volume of about 40 billion US dollars, and the reduction rate will be 2 to 3 points.
In the recent resumption of rumors, the author once again consulted relevant parties to learn that in order to curb the momentum of rapid growth in the size of the commemorative reserve, the Ministry of Finance in March did establish a plan to lower export tax rebates, including textiles and clothing. It is 2 to 3 percentage points. In addition, some products from other industries have reduced the tax rebate rate by more than 5 percentage points. Another related source stated that the policy of lowering the export tax rebate rate may be launched from June to July. Due to the prior coordination, when the tax rebate reduction policy was introduced for the first time, textiles and clothing were not within the scope of the downward adjustment. Of course, these are only speculations. In the end, Taiwan’s policy must also be seen. Trade frictions such as ** have also made it difficult for textile and apparel industry exports to sit back and relax.
(The author of this article is a senior member of the chemical fiber industry)
Recalling the background of the last country's adjustment of tax rebates on textile exports: Since August 2008, the country has raised the export tax rebate rate for textiles and clothing four times in a short period of six months, accumulatively increasing the original 11% to 16%. This is due to the combination of multiple factors such as the appreciation of renminbi, rising costs, and shrinking international demand. The growth rate of China's textile and apparel exports has been declining significantly. The Pearl River Delta region and other regions have successively experienced a series of corporate failures. The adjustment of this round of export tax rebate rate is used to help enterprises tide over the difficulties of the financial crisis.
Looking at the current situation, although the performance of China's textile and garment export data in the first quarter of 2011 exceeded the market's expectations, if it is carefully studied, it is not difficult to find that the increase in export product prices is an important contributor to the growth of exports in the first quarter. On the other hand, at the 109th Canton Fair that had just ended, many companies were worried that due to widespread concern about policy adjustments and rising costs, suppliers were afraid to accept long orders, and buyers were still doubtful about the outlook, placing orders. cautious. Nearly 90% of the short orders in this session of the Canton Fair, long-term single accounted for nearly 10%.
The author believes that due to the current government's efforts to control the size of the commemorative reserve and the huge export surplus in textiles and apparel, it is unrealistic to expect the government to introduce policies to stimulate textiles and apparel products in the near future. The previous rumors are not groundless. . However, the previous rumors were only due to the consultation of the relevant departments, and not the final policy plan. The content of the consultation draft is only to adjust the tax rebate rate of some textile and apparel products by 2-3%.
Recent rumors said that all relevant departments have basically reached an agreement and the rate of reduction of textile export tax rebates will not be less than 5 percentage points, which seems to mean that all products have been reduced by more than 5 percentage points. This is obviously not in line with the rules for the introduction of policies, policies are generally a small test, and then gradually progress, it is impossible to directly under this heavy hand. According to rumors, the government should raise the interest rate by 2 percentage points at a time when suppressing inflation and increase the reserve ratio by 10 percentage points at a time. Obviously, any responsible government will not do so, not to mention the textile industry, which involves tens of thousands of people.
In early April of this year, according to the author's understanding, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and relevant state departments have discussed whether to adjust the export tax rebate for some products. According to the actual export situation in 2010, the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will involve export volume of about 40 billion US dollars, and the reduction rate will be 2 to 3 points.
In the recent resumption of rumors, the author once again consulted relevant parties to learn that in order to curb the momentum of rapid growth in the size of the commemorative reserve, the Ministry of Finance in March did establish a plan to lower export tax rebates, including textiles and clothing. It is 2 to 3 percentage points. In addition, some products from other industries have reduced the tax rebate rate by more than 5 percentage points. Another related source stated that the policy of lowering the export tax rebate rate may be launched from June to July. Due to the prior coordination, when the tax rebate reduction policy was introduced for the first time, textiles and clothing were not within the scope of the downward adjustment. Of course, these are only speculations. In the end, Taiwan’s policy must also be seen. Trade frictions such as ** have also made it difficult for textile and apparel industry exports to sit back and relax.
(The author of this article is a senior member of the chemical fiber industry)
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