Huitong.com, January 6th - Friday (January 6th), the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States announced by the New York market increased by 156,000, which was less than expected. The unemployment rate recorded 4.7%, which was in line with expectations, and the salary growth was better than expected. The fastest growth rate in 7 years; the overall data is mixed, but the market is more concerned about salary growth, so it is expected to moderately boost the US dollar, negative non-US currency and gold; after the data is released, most institutions and authorities generally make a positive interpretation, Will help the Fed to raise interest rates further in 2017.
★ Make a positive interpretation: ★
["Debt King" Gross: The economy and labor market are improving, and the employment figures are good]
"Debt King" Gross said that the economy and labor market are improving, and the employment figures are good. In order to maintain healthy economic growth, it is necessary to achieve 3% real GDP growth rate and 5% nominal growth rate. The average hourly wage data is a "good news". It is expected that the interest rate will rise slightly; it is difficult to determine the impact of fiscal stimulus on GDP and inflation; if the 10-year bond yield exceeds 2.6%, it will be bad news; the market will resume a little rational in the next few weeks; the salary growth rate will reach 3 % is very important; Trump’s tax policy is “very strangeâ€, with global debt accounting for up to 350% of GDP, and emerging markets such as Mexico have huge dollar-denominated debt, a debt imbalance problem, Trump tax cuts It will bring more benefits in the short term; under Trump, the Fed should raise interest rates to a more normal level.
[Allianz Chief Economic Advisor: Labor Report will support the Fed to raise interest rates]
Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El Elian believes that the labor market is subject to structural challenges, the labor report will support the Fed to raise interest rates; it is expected that there will be a period of exchange rate fluctuations due to China's influence; political factors may change the market's volatility The view; the bond market will digest higher wage inflation; the bond market in the past two days has performed abnormally; the market should be careful that the dollar is too strong.
[Federate Meister: December non-agricultural employment data performed well, three interest rate hikes in 2017 is appropriate]
Federal Reserve Meister pointed out that the non-agricultural employment data in December performed well. The United States is basically in full employment. It is appropriate to raise interest rates three times in 2017. There are some fiscal stimulus considerations in the December forecast. I don’t think inflation will be huge. The risk that the Fed will achieve its inflation target in the next two years.
★ Make a neutral interpretation: ★
[Wells Fargo: US employment is normal in December, but there is still room for improvement]
Wells Fargo said that the US non-farm payrolls report for December showed that the US employment situation was normal in December – the US labor market took a long time to improve to this point. For the time being, the number of non-agricultural employment after the seasonal adjustment is 156,000, and it is normal for the annual growth rate of wages to approach 3.0%. However, there is still room for improvement in the labor market, especially in the case of low labor participation rates, but fortunately the overall situation in the labor market seems to be close to the level that the Fed is satisfied with.
[Ruei Sui: The report is flat, suggesting that the US economy will continue to recover moderately]
Mizuho pointed out that as far as the non-agricultural employment report is concerned, it is clear that the market is more concerned about the revision of the November data (the number of non-agricultural employment in November was revised from 178,000 to 204,000), but overall, this The report was flat and consistent with other US economic data we have seen, suggesting that the US economy will continue to recover moderately. The report is not considered to have changed the US economic outlook – a view that is consistent with the market reaction we have seen.
Federal funds rate futures are expected to raise interest rates
[After the release of non-agricultural data in the United States in December, the Fed’s interest rate hike in February rose slightly but the slight drop in June]
In the United States in December, the US federal funds rate futures indicated that the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates rose slightly to 12.4% in February 2017, slightly to 31.3% in March, and slightly rose to 45.0% in May (predicted by 10.4% before the announcement, 31.5%, 42.2%); the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates in June 2017 dropped slightly to 69.8%, slightly rose to 74.9% in July, slightly rose to 84.0% in September, slightly decreased to 86.3% in November, and slightly increased to December. 93.3% (70.9%, 74.0%, 83.4%, 86.8%, 92.5% before the data was released).
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