Zheshang Morning Meeting Minutes
Macro, stock index:
International:
1: Eurozone February inflation jumped to 2%, exceeding the ECB target
Statistics from the Eurostat show that the eurozone's February inflation rate rose to 2.0% in February from 1.8% in January, the highest level since the beginning of 2013, just above the European Central Bank's inflation target of just under 2%. The Eurozone's January producer price index (PPI) rose sharply from 1.6% in December to 3.5%, suggesting an increase in the pressure on basic prices. However, the ECB may still resist pressure to reduce its stimulus measures when it meets next week, on the grounds that the rise in inflation driven by oil prices is only temporary, and economic growth remains fragile, given that France, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy are also likely to hold general elections. The economic outlook is full of uncertainty.
2: The number of initial jobless claims in the US is close to the 44-year low
The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that as of February 25, the number of initial jobless claims fell by 19,000, seasonally adjusted to 223,000, the lowest level since March 1973. The previous week's data was revised to a further 2,000 people. This is the number of initial jobless claims for the 104th consecutive week below 300,000 points, the longest period since 1970, when the employment market was far below the current level. The data below 300,000 reflects the good job market. The US economy is currently at or near full employment, with an unemployment rate of 4.8%. After the data was released, US stocks fell slightly and the US dollar index was firm. US public debt prices fell.
3: Trump cabinet relapses into "passing the Russian door"
The White House National Security Adviser Flynn resigned two weeks ago because he was suspected of being in Russia. The Minister of Justice Sessions was exposed to meet with the Russian ambassador twice during the presidential campaign and concealed the matter at the hearing. This led to the Democratic leader of the House, Nancy Pelosi, calling on the Minister of Justice to resign, saying that he had committed "perjury."
domestic:
1: Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission Guo Shuqing "first show"
In the press conference, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, pointed out that private capital entering the market is necessary for overall development, but private banks cannot become major shareholder withdrawal machines. Guo Shuqing also said that it should be steady and prudent to grasp the release of real estate funds, and do not want to see the real estate market fluctuate.
2: Heavy truck sales in February surged 152% year-on-year, a record high in the same period
After a 1.2-fold year-on-year surge in January, China’s heavy-duty truck market remained hot in February. It is expected to sell 88,000 vehicles of various types, a substantial increase of 152% year-on-year, a record high for the same period. At present, heavy trucks have been growing at a high rate for two consecutive quarters, which is extremely rare in history. With the start of the capital investment and the arrival of the traditional peak season, heavy truck sales in March are expected to hit the 100,000 mark.
3: China will set a negative list and gradually eliminate exchange restrictions in the micro area
Fang Shangpu, deputy director of the SAFE, said recently that the next phase will carry out countercyclical camera regulation and precise regulation of foreign exchange liquidity and cross-border capital flows; and set a negative list based on prudence, and gradually eliminate exchange restrictions in the micro-domain. At the same time, the role of a flexible and flexible exchange rate mechanism for the impact of cross-border capital flows is “automatic regulatorâ€, which consolidates the basis of the self-balance of the foreign exchange market.
Trading Tip: Corporate earnings prospects continue to improve to support the market, but strengthen supervision to suppress risk appetite, and the index futures are weak.
Treasury futures:
1. People’s Daily: The head of the central bank said that it is trying to prevent and control financial markets and asset price bubbles.
In the past few days, General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech delivered at the fifteenth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group has sparked heated discussion in the community. At the meeting, the special research on in-depth promotion of capacity reduction, prevention and control of financial risks, establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and revitalization of manufacturing industries and other economic fields have attracted the attention and strong recognition of relevant ministries and experts. Everyone believes that these tasks are difficult, painful, and critical points in economic work. By squatting these "hard bones", we can guide the economy to develop in a higher quality, more efficient, fairer and more sustainable direction, and achieve steady progress.
2. Guo Shuqing's new debut: "Strong supervision" ideas
Less than a week after taking office, Guo Shuqing, the new chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, held a press conference at the State Council. At the position of the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, he had launched a new policy of "7 days and one reform", so people paid much attention to the first press conference of the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission. In China's financial system, the banking industry's assets and income are several times higher than the securities industry. The problems that the two industries need to solve are not the same, but they are closely related. Guo Shuqing bluntly said that in 2017, he will resolutely manage various financial chaos. Put prevention and control financial risks in a more prominent position to ensure that no systemic financial risks occur. In response to the cross-market of some cross-linked financial products, the layers of nesting, the underlying assets can not see the bottom, and finally flow to no one knows, etc., Guo Shuqing said that it is necessary to strengthen supervision and coordination to make up for the lack of system.
Trading Tips: The press conference showed that the “de-leverage†of the asset management institutions brought by the unified supervision and the increase of equity investment by commercial banks are not good for the bond market. However, the final policy has a long time to land, the real impact is limited, and the debt is short-term. for reference only
Non-ferrous metals:
1. The inflation rate reached 2% for the first time in four years, putting pressure on the ECB to adjust its policies. According to data released by EuROST at European statistics on Thursday, the euro zone's February CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, unchanged from expectations, higher than the previous value of 1.8%. This is the first time the Eurozone CPI has exceeded the target level set by the European Central Bank to “not reach but close to 2%â€.
2. The striker of the Escondida copper mine clashed with the police. Foreign media news: The strike of workers in the world's largest copper mine, Chile's Escondida copper mine, has been going on for three weeks. But strikes at the mine showed signs of increased violence, as some of the strike workers and the law governing order were in conflict because they tried to block the road.
3. Noranda management has restarted the production of the Quebec zinc plant. Toronto, Noranda Income Fund said management has restarted production at the Salaberry-de-Valleyfield zinc processing plant in Quebec and has increased output as the strike began on February 12. The company said it hopes to resume negotiations with 371 contract workers at the plant. After the two parties failed to reach an agreement on the pension plan in the collective agreement, the workers went on strike.
4. London time on March 2 at 17:00 (Beijing time March 3, 01:00), three-month copper closed down 1.4%, to $ 5,930. Three-month aluminum closed down 1.9% to $1,912. Three-month zinc fell 2.8% to $2,782 a tonne. Three-month lead fell 2.3% to $2,253 per tonne. Three-month tin fell 0.9% to $19,350 a tonne. Three-month nickel fell 2.3% to $10,780.
Trading Tip: The Fed’s rate hike expectation will strongly boost the US dollar, suppressing copper prices, and temporarily or short-term. Zinc aluminum is waiting or short-term.
Precious metals:
1. Fed Governor Powell: The interest rate hike in March "is worthy of serious consideration." In an interview, Powell said that inflation and employment-related conditions are approaching the Fed's goal, and raising interest rates deserve serious consideration. The risk balance has changed or even moved upwards, very close to the inflation target. It is believed that the rate hike in 2017 is still reasonable; the Fed may start to reduce its balance sheet after the interest rate is significantly higher than zero.
2. The inflation rate reached 2% for the first time in four years, putting pressure on the ECB to adjust its policy. The Eurozone's February CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, unchanged from expectations, above the previous value of 1.8%. This is the first time the Eurozone CPI has reached the 2% target level set by the European Central Bank. The January PPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.2%, almost double the previous value of 1.6%. The unemployment rate in January was 9.6%, which was in line with expectations and previous values.
3. On March 2, SPDR Gold positions increased by 0.21%, and iShares Silver's net positions were flat. The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund ETF -- SPDRGOLD Trust on March 2, gold positions increased by 1.78 tons to 845.32 tons on Thursday, while the world's largest silver ETF-iShares Silver Trust's silver net position was flat.
4. New York time at 13:30 on March 2 (Beijing time March 3, 02:30), COMEX April gold futures contract closed down $17.10, or 1.4%, and settled at $1,232.90 per ounce. May silver futures closed down 74.1 cents and settled at $17.748 an ounce.
Trading Tip: Inflation is accelerating to accumulate infrastructure expectations, the probability of a rate hike in March has increased sharply, and gold has waited.
Thermal coal, coking coal, coke, steel:
1. The first commercial vehicle network was recently informed that the heavy truck market is expected to sell 88,000 vehicles of various types in February this year, up 6% from the previous month and 152% from the same period of last year, with a net increase of 53,000. 88,000 vehicles also means that the heavy truck sales in February 2017 hit a record high in the heavy truck market in February. Prior to this, the highest point in the heavy truck market in February was in 2012, when the heavy truck market sold 78,000 units a month.
2. According to the news of Hebei News Network on March 2, the responsible comrade introduced that since February, the municipal governments of Hebei Province and Shijiazhuang have not issued notices of large-scale production shutdowns and power cuts. The companies involved in the network rumors, such as Shijiazhuang Group, Huayao Group, and Hebei Jingye Group, are in normal production. Individual enterprises such as Wenxing County Xinzhen Xinxing Steel Strip Factory are not perfect due to the EIA procedures, and there is no sewage permit. It was jointly sealed up by relevant local authorities in accordance with relevant laws and regulations.
On the 3rd and 2nd, the steel market price was consolidating at a high level. The two sessions of the National People's Congress were held, and the environmental protection and production restrictions were added to the area, and the environmental protection speculation was re-ignited. The overall atmosphere of the market was acceptable. The futures market fluctuated at a high level. In the afternoon, the billet price rebounded by 60 to 3,230 yuan/ton, and the price decline yesterday stabilized. Especially in Shagang and Hegang's sharply raised ex-factory prices, the market is more emotional. Although the terminal demand is slow to release, the price decline is limited. It is expected that the short-term market price will be consolidating. In terms of rebar, the price of HRB400 (20mm) rebar in 25 major markets nationwide was 3,935 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in hot rolled coil, the whole market was 4.75mm hot rolled coil in 24 markets. The price was 3,909 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; in terms of plate, the price of 20 mm medium plate in 23 major markets nationwide was 3,842 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day.
The 4th and 2nd iron ore Platts index was reported at 92.45 US dollars / dry ton, up 0.9 US dollars / dry tons.
On the 5th and 2nd, Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 thermal coal was 624 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; Qinhuangdao port coal inventory was 4.595 million tons, increasing 95,000 tons; Qinhuangdao port anchorage number was 71, adding 2; Qinhuangdao Port to Guangzhou The port freight rate was 50.1 yuan/ton, up 2.2 yuan/ton; the coal inventory of the six major power plants was 16.9 days, an increase of 0.16 days; the daily average coal consumption of the six major power plants was 652,500 tons, minus 0.59 million tons.
6 and 2 rebar futures 1705 received 3553 yuan / ton, up 37 yuan / ton; hot rolled coil contract 1705 received 3579 yuan / ton, down 9 yuan / ton; iron ore futures 1705 received 694.5 yuan / ton, down 0.5 yuan / ton; coke futures contract 1705 received 1810.5 yuan / ton, up 31 yuan / ton; coking coal futures contract 1705 received 1318.5 yuan / ton, up 20.5 yuan / ton; thermal coal futures contract 1705 received 582.6 yuan / ton, up 1.6 Yuan / ton.
Operational recommendations: terminal demand recovery is slow, long-term confidence is insufficient, black goods are facing a correction, it is recommended to emptiness rebar 05, hot rolled coil 05; iron ore to buy 05 sell 09 operation; coking coal 05, coke 05 not It is recommended to do more; the thermal coal is more than a single rolling hold.
Methanol, LLDPE, PP, PTA:
1. New York time at 14:30 on March 2 (Beijing time 3:30 on March 3), NYMEX April crude oil futures contract closed down 1.22 US dollars, or 2.3%, settlement price reported 52.61 US dollars per barrel, hit February 8 The lowest since the day. May Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.28 US dollars, or 2.3%, the settlement price reported 55.08 US dollars per barrel.
2. Naphtha Japan 485.6 (-14.6) US dollars / ton, ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1375 (0) US dollars / ton, propylene CFR China 955 (0) US dollars / ton, PX CFR Taiwan 913 (-1) US dollars / ton.
3, methanol spot market price, Jiangsu low-end offer 2980 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton; Lunan area low-end offer 2760 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia low-end offer 2300 yuan / ton, Hold steady.
4, L spot price, North China domestic linear mainstream reported 9625 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton; East China linear mainstream reported 9625 yuan / ton, down 75 yuan / ton; South China linear mainstream reported 9750 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / Ton.
5, PP market, East China drawing mainstream reported 8500 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton; North China reported 8475 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton; South China reported 8650 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton.
6, PTA spot, East China PTA spot delivery price offer 5445 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton; CFR Taiwan main port cargo 675 US dollars / ton, steady. The mainstream price of East China polyester chips is 7,700 yuan / ton.
7, methanol main futures 1705 closed 2857 yuan / ton, down 21 yuan / ton; LLDPE main futures 1705 received 9625 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton; PP main futures 1705 received 8591 yuan / ton, up 27 yuan / ton; PTA main futures 1705 received 5560 yuan / ton, down 8 yuan / ton
Operational recommendations: L05, PP05 temporarily wait and see; methanol unilateral is not recommended to do more; TA705 temporarily wait and see.
crude
Trading Tips:
rubber:
1, domestic 15 years of natural rubber prices, Shanghai 17400 (-100).
2, the external disk CIFRSS3 offer closed at 2600 (0) US dollars / ton, Malay No. 20 standard rubber offer closed at 2250 (+20) US dollars / ton.
3, Thailand's rubber raw material prices fluctuated within a narrow range, raw film 75.35, up 0.60; smoke film 78.78, up 1.48; glue 76.00, up 1.00; cup glue 65.00, up 1.00.
4. The listing price of butadiene in Sinopec East China Sales Company remained unchanged at RMB 24,300/ton. Shanghai Jinshan 120,000 tons / year butadiene plant is operating normally. Zhenhai Refinery's 165,000 tons/year butadiene plant started normally. Yangzi Petrochemical's butadiene capacity is 220,000 tons/year. The products are mainly for personal use and mutual supply, with a small amount of export.
5, synthetic rubber price, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 Qilu Petrochemical East China 20250 (-300), butadiene rubber BR9000 Qilu Petrochemical East China 22800 (-600).
6. The Thai government announced an indefinite postponement of the fourth national reserve rubber auction scheduled for March 7 and 8.
7. The natural rubber futures warehouse receipts of the previous period were reported to 272870 (+2950).
Trading Tip: The current overall production in the main producing areas of Southeast Asia is still acceptable, the purchase price of raw materials has declined, and the price of the US dollar market has fluctuated. The domestic production area entered the cut-off period, the spot price has resisted the decline, the spread of the whole latex and synthetic rubber upside down has converged, and the support for the spot price has declined, paying attention to the stock market situation. At present, the operating rate of domestic tire factories has risen slightly, the finished goods inventory of tire factories is relatively low, and the downstream factories just need to be expected to be acceptable. It is expected that the operating rate of tire factories will rise in the short term. Short-term supply is not profitable, but the heavy truck data is better, and the fundamentals have certain support. The Thai government announced that it will postpone the fourth national reserve rubber auction indefinitely, and the short-term wide shock will be short-term.
Beans, oils and fats:
1. Agricultural consultancy Safras & MerCA do said on Wednesday that Brazil's 2016/17 soybean harvest has reached 34.3% of the estimated harvested area, and the harvesting pace continues to be faster than the historical average. Harvesting progressed by about 10 percentage points from the previous week, slightly higher than 33.3% in the same period last year, and the average of the past five years was 25.5%. According to the consultancy, the first corn harvest rate reached 29.4% of the estimated area, compared with 33.2% in the same period last year. At the same time, the planting rate of the second corn was 57.3%, compared with 73.5% in the same period last year.
2. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a report on Wednesday showing that the US soybean crush in January 2017 was 5.12 million short tons (171 million bushels), up from 5.07 million short tons (169 million bushels) in December 2016. And 4.81 million short tons (1.6 billion bushels) in January 2016. According to the report, US soybean oil production in January was 1.98 billion pounds, an increase of 1% from December last year and a 6% increase from the same period last year.
3. Informa Economics, a private analyst firm, said on Thursday that it raised Brazil's 2016/17 soybean production forecast to 108 million tons, up from an estimated 106.5 million tons. In the monthly report, Informa also raised its Brazilian corn production forecast to 91 million tons, up from an estimated 89 million tons. The agency maintains Argentina's 2016/17 soybean and corn production unchanged at 55 million tons and 35.2 million tons, respectively.
4. The Export Sales Report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday showed that in the week ending February 23, the US soybean export sales in 2016-17 increased by 427,700 tons, which is estimated at 300,000-500,000 tons. Between the two, and an increase of 27% over the previous week, but a 23% decrease from the previous four-week average. The net sales of US soybean exports in 2017-18 is 0 tons, and the market is estimated to be 0-20 million tons. In the week, US soybean exports shipped 987,600 tons, a slight increase of 1% from the previous week, but a 23% decrease from the previous four-week average. The US Department of Agriculture report also showed that in the week ending February 23, the US new sales of soybeans in 2016-17 were 421,600 tons, and the new annual sales of soybeans in 2017-18 were 0 tons.
5. The Brazilian Ministry of Trade announced on Thursday that merchandise export data for February showed that Brazil's soybean exports in February were 3.51 million tons, up from 2.04 million tons in the same period last year.
Trading Tip: Brazil's harvest continues to advance, and high-yield production is expected to drag US soybeans lower. At present, the supply pressure in South America has not been fully released, and the overall US soybeans remain volatile. Domestically, soybeans are huge in Hong Kong, the operating rate of oil plants has rebounded sharply, and demand is in the off-season. The inventory of antimony is still in a growing trend and the supply is abundant. However, from March to April, some oil plants have a long-term shutdown and production restriction plan, which may cause the supply of soybean meal to be in a phased tight state to provide support to the market. Domestic cockroaches are waiting for a short-term or short-term operation, waiting for a suitable opportunity. The recovery of palm oil production is imminent, the recovery cycle is superimposed with seasonal increase in production, and the supply is abundant in the later period. Together with the high yield of soybeans in South America, the defensive short-selling ideas are maintained in the later stages of the oil.
White sugar:
1. At present, there are already 18 sugar factories in Guangxi that have been squeezed out, with 7 more than the same period of last year. The capacity of the sugar mills that have been squeezed has reached 97,000 tons/day, which is 39,000 tons/day higher than the same period last year. According to the sugar mill's harvesting plan, it is expected that more than half of the sugar factories in Guangxi will be squeezed in the first half of March, and Guangxi will also enter the peak period of harvesting. However, due to the weather, the sugarcane and sugarcane are not affected in time, etc. Or a little difference.
2. From the 16/17 season in Hainan Province to February 28, the amount of sugar cane squeezed was 1,305,800 tons, 936,600 tons more than the same period, and 139,200 tons; the amount of stored sugar was 372,100 tons, an increase of 76,400 tons from 275,700 tons. The sugar production amount was 119,200 tons, which was 103,500 tons and the annual yield was 13,900 tons. The sugar production rate was 11.51%, down by 11.3% year-on-year, 11.3%. In February, the monthly sugar production was 48,400 tons, an increase of 0.74 million tons. 2.08 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons.
In Hainan Province, there are already six sugar factories in Coconut, Longli, Kapok, Heshui, Coconut and Haitou. There are still five sugar factories in Chengpeng, Changpo, Changjiang, Haihong and Dongfang. According to reports, driven by the rising interest in sugar prices, some sugar candies in Chengmai County and Haikou have recently rushed to buy sugarcane sources in other cities and counties, which has a major impact on the sugarcane cutting order and social security.
3. European traders said on Thursday that the Iranian government trading company (GTC) is bidding for 60,000 tons of Brazilian sugar cane raw sugar, indicating that the country aims to increase inventory. Last week, trade sources said Iranian private importers bought up to 250,000 tons of Brazilian raw sugar.
4. ICE raw sugar futures rose for the third consecutive day on Thursday. After forming a technical support level, some investors believe that the March contract delivery record is a bullish signal. May raw sugar futures closed up 0.18 cents, or 0.9%, at 19.66 cents a pound. May sugar futures closed up $4.20, or 0.8%, at $543.60 a tonne.
Trading Tip: Raw sugar continues to rise. The sugar factory in Guangxi entered the harvesting period. As of March 1, the number of sugar mills was 18, which was faster than the year-on-year. The output was estimated to be lowered. At the end of March, the sugar mill plans to basically squeeze, and the output will be basically confirmed. Guangxi announced the second linkage, the cost of sugar mills increased this year, and at the same time, the enthusiasm of sugarcane farmers in the coming year was greatly boosted. At present, the pressure on new sugar supply in the market is relatively high, and the transaction is relatively light. However, the results of the investigation on the support of the No. 1 document and the safeguard measures have not yet been announced, and the market has limited room for decline. In operation, Zheng sugar is in the 6800 support position, and it is temporarily waiting for the main. After the stabilization, more than one light warehouse test.
cotton:
1. According to the Announcement No. 26 of 2016 jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, “According to the relevant arrangements of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance Announcement No. 9 of 2016, according to the current cotton supply and demand situation and market operation situation, it is decided by research. During the new cotton market this year (currently until the end of February next year), no reserve cotton rotation will be arranged. In 2017, the reserve cotton sales will start from March 6th. The deadline is tentatively set at the end of August. 30,000 tons arrangement.†It can be seen that the formula for calculating the reserve price of the reserve cotton in turn in 2017 should be consistent with 2016, that is, “the reserve price of the reserve cotton round this week (standard 3128B) = the spot price of cotton in the domestic market last week. The arithmetic mean of the index × weight 50% + the average value of the cotton spot price index in the international market last week × weight 50%. Then, according to the preliminary estimate of the spot price index of domestic and foreign cotton for 3 days from February 27 to March 1, the reserve price of the reserve cotton in the first week of 2017 is above 15,300 yuan/ton.
2. According to Dow Jones News on March 2, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced on Thursday that the export sales report showed that in the week ending February 23, US 2016-17 annual net export sales of upland cotton increased by 481,400 bales, a record The market's annual high was 31% higher than the previous week and 72% higher than the previous four-week average. In the week, US 2017-18 annual net export sales of upland cotton increased by 62,900 bales. In the week, US land cotton shipments were 318,200 bales, a decrease of 6% from the previous week and a 14% decrease from the previous four-week average. The US Department of Agriculture also announced that in the week ending February 23, US new sales of upland cotton in 2016-17 were 481,200 bales, and new sales in 2017-18 were 62,900 bales.
3. The ICE cotton contract rose to the highest level in nearly three years on Thursday, and was boosted by US export sales data. However, it was affected by weak commodities and the appreciation of the US dollar, which was lower than 1%. ICE May cotton futures closed down 1.08 cents, or 1.39%, at 76.78 cents a pound, and intraday highs at 79.18 cents, the highest since the end of June 2014.
Trading Tip: US cotton fell. The agency predicts that the national output will be 5 million tons, mainly due to Xinjiang's output or exceeding the previous estimate, an increase of 250,000 tons compared with the previous estimate. Recently, cotton stocks of textile enterprises declined slightly, cotton yarn stocks dropped significantly, cotton yarn stocks of weaving mills increased slightly, while stocks of stocks declined, and downstream demand boosted demand for upstream textile enterprises. However, the national reserve sold close, and most textile enterprises waited for the national reserve. Cotton sales, but also some textile companies to avoid the price fluctuations in the early stage of the reserve. It is expected that before the dumping, the market is expected to be different, and cotton will be dominated by shocks in the near future. In operation, Zheng cotton is mainly shocked, short-term or temporary.
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