I. Status quo of layout and structure In 2004, China's chemical fiber industry achieved historic achievements, with a total output of 14.245 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, which is the fastest growth year in recent years. Among them, synthetic fiber was 13.46 million tons, an increase of 20.8% over the previous year; viscose fiber%. 60,000 tons, an increase of 16.1% over the previous year.
At present, China's chemical fiber production has accounted for 40.1% of the world's total, which is 4.18 times and 4.77 times of the world's second largest in the world and the world's third largest in the world (they account for 9.6% of the world's total output, respectively). 8.4%), China has become a veritable chemical fiber industry.
China's chemical fiber industry has a production capacity of about 17 million tons, which also accounts for more than 40% of the world's total capacity. The layout structure of the chemical fiber industry is mainly concentrated in the east. Its production capacity has reached 14.4 million tons, accounting for 90% of the total chemical fiber production capacity in China; only 1.28 million tons in the central part, accounting for 8%; only 320,000 tons in the west, less than 2%. In the east, the production capacity is mainly concentrated in the two chemical fiber industry provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
In terms of variety structure, China's chemical fiber products are mainly composed of synthetic fibers, accounting for 92.24% of the total output, and viscose fiber only accounts for 7.76%. Among the synthetic fibers, polyester fiber is the main variety, and its output accounts for 86.6% of synthetic fiber. The remaining nylon fiber, acrylic fiber, polypropylene fiber and vinylon fiber account for only 5.1%, 5%, 2.1% and 0.26% respectively. This is basically consistent with the demand structure of the textile industry.
In terms of scale structure, the number of enterprises with an annual output of 50,000 tons or more has increased from 63 in 2003 to 80, but there are still more than 240 enterprises with a capacity of less than 50,000 tons, accounting for about 30% of the production capacity. There are only 18 enterprises with a capacity of over 200,000 tons, and the total production capacity is about 40%. The average production capacity has also increased to 400,000 tons/year.
Second, the existing problems
1. Facing the two constraints of supply and demand. Due to the soaring international oil prices, the prices of upstream raw materials in the chemical fiber industry have been rising, especially the raw materials of polyester, which are subject to the supply and price of the international market. In the downstream manufacturing sector, due to the bumper harvest of cotton, the demand for chemical fiber began to slow down and production capacity began to appear excessive.
2. The production capacity of the main raw material polyester is growing too fast. From 2001 to 2004, the newly added polyester production capacity was nearly 11 million tons, and the growth rate nearly quadrupled. It is estimated that the total domestic polyester production capacity will reach 22.12 million tons at the end of 2005, which is seriously exceeding the actual demand.
The domestic supply of polyester raw material PTA/MEG is in serious shortage and can only rely on imports. In 2005, the average production capacity of polyester was 19.3 million tons. If it was operated at an average load of 74%, it would consume about 12.3 million tons of PTA and nearly 7 million tons of imports; it would consume about 4.8 million tons of MEG and nearly 3.6 million tons of imports.
At the same time that polyester production capacity is growing too fast, the downstream looms operating rate is only 62% on average, down 12.8 percentage points from 2003. The downstream enterprises have only about 12 million tons of polyester fiber processing capacity, and actually consume about 10 million tons of domestic polyester (about 1.2 million tons of recycled polyester fiber and about 550,000 tons of net imported polyester fiber). The amount of polyester that fiber polyester can consume in China is about 11.5 million tons, so there is at least 4.5 million tons of overcapacity.
Due to the limited digestibility of downstream weaving, the average polyester composite load in 2004 decreased by 5 percentage points, only about 78%. Among them, small polyesters are largely wasteful due to the large waste, high cost and poor quality of conventional slicing. Slice, the operating rate has been around 25%.
3. The company does not meet the scale economy requirements. Take polyester as an example. There are more than 240 enterprises with an annual output of less than 50,000 tons, accounting for 75%, accounting for only 30% of the production capacity. Only 18 of them have more than 200,000 tons, accounting for only 5.6%, and the production capacity accounts for 40% of the national total. 4. The regional layout is too concentrated in the two provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. More than 70% of the production capacity and output of major chemical fiber products are concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Other regions have only sporadic distribution, especially the advantages of raw material production areas can not play a role, which is not conducive to the development of chemical fiber industry and textile industry in the central and western regions.
Third, countermeasures and suggestions
1. Improve the self-sufficiency rate of polyester raw materials in China. The serious shortage of raw materials has become the biggest constraint factor for the operation and development of China's chemical fiber industry. The import dependence of synthetic fiber raw materials is as high as 60% on average, of which MEG is up to 77.7%, and nylon raw material CPL is above 65%. The import dependence of PTA is also 56.4%.
At present, the construction of PTA/MEG devices in China is obviously unable to keep up with the development speed of the polyester industry. Therefore, the state may consider appropriate relaxation of project approval, so that more private capital and foreign capital will enter the chemical fiber raw material industry, and fundamentally solve the problem that raw materials are heavily dependent on imports.
2. Appropriate adjustment of import tariffs on polyester raw materials to reduce the cost of polyester plants
China's chemical fiber industry has a production capacity of about 17 million tons, which also accounts for more than 40% of the world's total capacity. The layout structure of the chemical fiber industry is mainly concentrated in the east. Its production capacity has reached 14.4 million tons, accounting for 90% of the total chemical fiber production capacity in China; only 1.28 million tons in the central part, accounting for 8%; only 320,000 tons in the west, less than 2%. In the east, the production capacity is mainly concentrated in the two chemical fiber industry provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
In terms of variety structure, China's chemical fiber products are mainly composed of synthetic fibers, accounting for 92.24% of the total output, and viscose fiber only accounts for 7.76%. Among the synthetic fibers, polyester fiber is the main variety, and its output accounts for 86.6% of synthetic fiber. The remaining nylon fiber, acrylic fiber, polypropylene fiber and vinylon fiber account for only 5.1%, 5%, 2.1% and 0.26% respectively. This is basically consistent with the demand structure of the textile industry.
In terms of scale structure, the number of enterprises with an annual output of 50,000 tons or more has increased from 63 in 2003 to 80, but there are still more than 240 enterprises with a capacity of less than 50,000 tons, accounting for about 30% of the production capacity. There are only 18 enterprises with a capacity of over 200,000 tons, and the total production capacity is about 40%. The average production capacity has also increased to 400,000 tons/year.
Second, the existing problems
1. Facing the two constraints of supply and demand. Due to the soaring international oil prices, the prices of upstream raw materials in the chemical fiber industry have been rising, especially the raw materials of polyester, which are subject to the supply and price of the international market. In the downstream manufacturing sector, due to the bumper harvest of cotton, the demand for chemical fiber began to slow down and production capacity began to appear excessive.
2. The production capacity of the main raw material polyester is growing too fast. From 2001 to 2004, the newly added polyester production capacity was nearly 11 million tons, and the growth rate nearly quadrupled. It is estimated that the total domestic polyester production capacity will reach 22.12 million tons at the end of 2005, which is seriously exceeding the actual demand.
The domestic supply of polyester raw material PTA/MEG is in serious shortage and can only rely on imports. In 2005, the average production capacity of polyester was 19.3 million tons. If it was operated at an average load of 74%, it would consume about 12.3 million tons of PTA and nearly 7 million tons of imports; it would consume about 4.8 million tons of MEG and nearly 3.6 million tons of imports.
At the same time that polyester production capacity is growing too fast, the downstream looms operating rate is only 62% on average, down 12.8 percentage points from 2003. The downstream enterprises have only about 12 million tons of polyester fiber processing capacity, and actually consume about 10 million tons of domestic polyester (about 1.2 million tons of recycled polyester fiber and about 550,000 tons of net imported polyester fiber). The amount of polyester that fiber polyester can consume in China is about 11.5 million tons, so there is at least 4.5 million tons of overcapacity.
Due to the limited digestibility of downstream weaving, the average polyester composite load in 2004 decreased by 5 percentage points, only about 78%. Among them, small polyesters are largely wasteful due to the large waste, high cost and poor quality of conventional slicing. Slice, the operating rate has been around 25%.
3. The company does not meet the scale economy requirements. Take polyester as an example. There are more than 240 enterprises with an annual output of less than 50,000 tons, accounting for 75%, accounting for only 30% of the production capacity. Only 18 of them have more than 200,000 tons, accounting for only 5.6%, and the production capacity accounts for 40% of the national total. 4. The regional layout is too concentrated in the two provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. More than 70% of the production capacity and output of major chemical fiber products are concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Other regions have only sporadic distribution, especially the advantages of raw material production areas can not play a role, which is not conducive to the development of chemical fiber industry and textile industry in the central and western regions.
Third, countermeasures and suggestions
1. Improve the self-sufficiency rate of polyester raw materials in China. The serious shortage of raw materials has become the biggest constraint factor for the operation and development of China's chemical fiber industry. The import dependence of synthetic fiber raw materials is as high as 60% on average, of which MEG is up to 77.7%, and nylon raw material CPL is above 65%. The import dependence of PTA is also 56.4%.
At present, the construction of PTA/MEG devices in China is obviously unable to keep up with the development speed of the polyester industry. Therefore, the state may consider appropriate relaxation of project approval, so that more private capital and foreign capital will enter the chemical fiber raw material industry, and fundamentally solve the problem that raw materials are heavily dependent on imports.
2. Appropriate adjustment of import tariffs on polyester raw materials to reduce the cost of polyester plants
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